Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T13:39:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3A
0x3af9…1a31
crypto · 203 markets active 0h ago
3.5score
+$64 +4%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$65 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$4
Realized+$65
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses163 / 39
Open positions1
Markets (closed)202 / 203
History coverage110d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown94%
Kalshi-fit98%
Chart Positions 1 History 202 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$43
7 days+$43
14 days+$43
30 days+$46
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Up 89¢ 78¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-12%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Up 84¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Up 87¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Down 82¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Down 89¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
BNB Up or Down on June 4? Up 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Up 77¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Down 70¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Up 30¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 13 $9 −$4 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$5 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$3 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$4 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 13 $105 +$7 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$3 -32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 84% +$42
world 14% +$9
weather 1% +$13
other 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $5 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $5 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $5 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $5 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $5 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-4.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 189 +5.5% -4.5% 82% 40% -6.9%
≤30d 195 +4.8% -5.2% 81% 40% -6.8%
≤90d 199 +4.2% -5.7% 80% 40% -13.8%
all 202 +5.6% -4.5% 81% 41% -6.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.5% 41% -6.2%
10% -13.6% 20% -15.2%
15% -22.0% 8% -23.4%
20% -29.6% 2% -30.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.38 · official $4.35 (match) · 488 history records