Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:32:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3A 0x3af8…d08e crypto 518 markets active 1h ago coverage 98d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$44 (-1%) realized −$44 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%349W / 169L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day5.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$30
7 days+$41
14 days+$58
30 days+$77
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$143
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +42.9% +29.3% 100% 100% +29.4%
≤30d 22 +15.7% +4.7% 73% 73% +6.2%
≤90d 305 -2.5% -11.8% 67% 67% -12.0%
all 518 -1.0% -10.4% 67% 67% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 67% -11.8%
10% -19.0% 65% -20.2%
15% -26.8% 53% -27.9%
20% -34.0% 22% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$12 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$44
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses349 / 169
Open positions0
Markets (closed)518 / 518
History coverage98d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 518 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 29 $33 +$16 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 28 $32 +$14 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 24 $31 +$11 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 21 $19 +$9 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 21 $19 +$8 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 18 $18 +$23 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 17 $18 +$13 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 13 $19 +$11 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 13 $19 +$11 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 13 $18 +$8 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 13 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 12 $19 +$16 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 12 $18 +$10 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 12 $17 +$8 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 10 $17 +$10 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 08 $16 +$11 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 02 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 01 $17 +$8 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET May 31 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET May 30 $17 +$9 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET May 29 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET May 29 $18 +$9 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET May 29 $17 +$11 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET May 22 $17 +$7 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET May 20 $16 +$10 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET May 20 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET May 20 $17 +$8 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET May 20 $16 +$13 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET May 20 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET May 19 $16 +$9 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET May 19 $16 +$6 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET May 19 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET May 18 $16 +$11 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET May 18 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET May 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET May 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET May 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET May 17 $20 +$7 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET May 16 $19 +$13 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET May 16 $19 +$13 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET May 16 $18 +$12 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET May 16 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET May 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET May 16 $20 +$12 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET May 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET May 15 $20 +$14 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET May 15 $22 −$22 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $32 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $31 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $19 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $19 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $18 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $18 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $18 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $19 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $20 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $19 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $19 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $18 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $19 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $19 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $18 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $17 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $17 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $16 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $17 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $17 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $18 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $17 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $18 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $18 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $17 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $17 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $16 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $17 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $17 40d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1046 history records