Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T02:34:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3A 0x3af4…1214 sports 123 markets active 2h ago coverage 520d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$272 (-9%) realized −$272 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate39%47W / 74L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$9
14 days+$9
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% −$129
other 12% −$185
politics 3% −$3
crypto 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-33.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +30.6% +18.1% 50% 50% +6.8%
≤30d 2 +30.6% +18.1% 50% 50% +6.8%
≤90d 40 -44.5% -49.8% 30% 30% -48.9%
all 121 -26.1% -33.2% 39% 38% -20.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.2% 38% -20.2%
10% -39.6% 35% -27.8%
15% -45.4% 30% -34.8%
20% -50.8% 24% -41.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -44% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -38% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$17 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

520d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized−$272
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses47 / 74
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)121 / 123
History coverage520d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 121 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner T1 71¢ 72¢ $27 $27 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 66 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $32 −$5 -15%
Canada to score first vs. South Africa? Jun 28 $18 +$14 +76%
Will SC Corinthians Paulista win on 2026-04-18? Apr 18 $19 −$19 -98%
LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming (BO3) - CBLOL Regular Season Apr 18 $36 −$17 -47%
LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming - Game 2 Winner Apr 18 $18 +$9 +50%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs FURIA Esports - Game 2 Winner Apr 18 $18 −$18 -99%
Spread: SC Corinthians Paulista (-1.5) Apr 16 $19 +$27 +143%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS (BO3) - CBLOL Regular Season Apr 14 $29 −$29 -99%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Apr 14 $9 +$9 +101%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS - Game 1 Winner Apr 14 $9 −$9 -98%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14? Apr 14 $10 +$7 +74%
Will SC Corinthians Paulista win on 2026-04-12? Apr 12 $28 −$28 -98%
LoL: LOS vs LOUD - Game 2 Winner Apr 12 $15 −$15 -98%
LoL: LOS vs LOUD - Game 1 Winner Apr 12 $9 +$6 +64%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs Fluxo W7M - Game 2 Winner Apr 12 $9 −$9 -98%
UFC 327: Johnny Walker vs. Dominick Reyes (Light Heavyweight, Main Car Apr 12 $10 −$10 -98%
UFC 327: Cub Swanson vs. Nate Landwehr (Featherweight, Prelims) Apr 12 $10 −$10 -98%
UFC 327: Patricio Pitbull vs. Aaron Pico (Featherweight, Prelims) Apr 12 $11 −$11 -98%
UFC 327: Kevin Holland vs. Randy Brown (Welterweight, Prelims) Apr 11 $21 −$21 -98%
UFC 327: Mateusz Gamrot vs. Esteban Ribovics (Lightweight, Prelims) Apr 11 $8 −$8 -98%
UFC 327: Tatiana Suarez vs. Loopy Godínez (Women's Strawweight, Early Apr 11 $12 +$8 +64%
UFC 327: Chris Padilla vs. MarQuel Mederos (Lightweight, Early Prelims Apr 11 $10 +$5 +54%
UFC 327: Kelvin Gastelum vs. Vicente Luque (Middleweight, Early Prelim Apr 11 $5 +$11 +213%
UFC 327: Charles Radtke vs. Francisco Prado (Welterweight, Early Preli Apr 11 $4 −$4 -98%
LoL: RED Canids vs paiN Gaming - Game 2 Winner Apr 11 $5 −$5 -98%
LoL: RED Canids vs paiN Gaming - Game 1 Winner Apr 11 $9 −$9 -98%
LoL: FURIA Esports vs Leviatan Esports - Game 2 Winner Apr 11 $12 +$2 +18%
LoL: FURIA Esports vs Leviatan Esports - Game 1 Winner Apr 11 $7 −$7 -98%
Will SC Corinthians Paulista win on 2026-04-05? Apr 05 $18 −$18 -100%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Apr 05 $5 −$5 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Jose Delano vs. Robert Ruchala (Featherweight, Prelim Apr 05 $10 +$2 +17%
UFC Fight Night: Thomas Petersen vs. Guilherme Pat (Heavyweight, Preli Apr 05 $12 −$7 -54%
UFC Fight Night: Alessandro Costa vs. Stewart Nicoll (Flyweight, Preli Apr 04 $8 +$2 +24%
UFC Fight Night: Lando Vannata vs. Darrius Flowers (Lightweight, Preli Apr 04 $10 −$10 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Melissa Gatto vs. Dione Barbosa (Women's Flyweight, P Apr 04 $9 −$9 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Kai Kamaka III vs. Dakota Hope (Lightweight, Prelims) Apr 04 $8 −$8 -98%
LoL: LOUD vs paiN Gaming - Game 2 Winner Apr 04 $9 −$9 -98%
LoL: LOUD vs paiN Gaming - Game 1 Winner Apr 04 $8 −$8 -98%
LoL: RED Canids vs Fluxo W7M - Game 2 Winner Apr 04 $9 −$9 -98%
LoL: RED Canids vs Fluxo W7M - Game 1 Winner Apr 04 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: paiN Gaming vs Vivo Keyd Stars - Game 2 Winner Mar 29 $9 −$9 -100%
LoL: paiN Gaming vs Vivo Keyd Stars - Game 1 Winner Mar 29 $9 −$9 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Israel Adesanya vs. Joe Pyfer (Middleweight, Main Car Mar 29 $66 −$66 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Casey O'Neill vs. Gabriella Fernandes (Women's Flywei Mar 28 $10 −$10 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Bruno Lopes vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, M Mar 28 $11 −$11 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Ricky Simon vs. Adrian Yanez (Bantamweight, Prelims) Mar 28 $50 −$10 -21%
UFC Fight Night: Bruna Brasil vs. Alexia Thainara (Women's Strawweight Mar 28 $17 −$17 -100%
LoL: FURIA Esports vs LOS (BO3) - CBLOL Regular Season Mar 28 $45 +$70 +155%
LoL: FURIA Esports vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Mar 28 $28 +$17 +61%
LoL: FURIA Esports vs LOS - Game 1 Winner Mar 28 $10 +$18 +183%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 71¢ $27 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL 46¢ $27 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY 53¢ $32 5h
Canada to score first vs. South Africa? SELL Yes 100¢ $32 5h
Canada to score first vs. South Africa? BUY Yes 56¢ $18 7h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? AND BUY 5¢ $99 8h
Will SC Corinthians Paulista win on 2026-04-18? BUY Yes 33¢ $19 71d
LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming (BO3) - CBLOL Regular Season BUY paiN Gaming 35¢ $27 71d
LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL LOS 100¢ $27 71d
LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY LOS 66¢ $18 71d
LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming (BO3) - CBLOL Regular Season SELL paiN Gaming 55¢ $18 71d
LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming (BO3) - CBLOL Regular Season BUY paiN Gaming 26¢ $9 71d
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs FURIA Esports - Game 2 Winner BUY FURIA Esports 75¢ $18 71d
Spread: SC Corinthians Paulista (-1.5) SELL SC Corinthians Paulista 99¢ $46 74d
Spread: SC Corinthians Paulista (-1.5) BUY SC Corinthians Paulista 40¢ $19 74d
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS (BO3) - CBLOL Regular Season BUY LOS 69¢ $11 75d
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS (BO3) - CBLOL Regular Season BUY LOS 53¢ $18 75d
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS - Game 2 Winner SELL LOS 100¢ $18 75d
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS - Game 2 Winner BUY LOS 49¢ $9 75d
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS - Game 1 Winner BUY LOS 51¢ $9 75d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14? SELL Yes 99¢ $17 75d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14? BUY Yes 56¢ $10 75d
Will SC Corinthians Paulista win on 2026-04-12? BUY Yes 33¢ $28 77d
LoL: LOS vs LOUD - Game 2 Winner BUY LOS 45¢ $15 77d
LoL: LOS vs LOUD - Game 1 Winner SELL LOUD 100¢ $15 77d
LoL: LOS vs LOUD - Game 1 Winner BUY LOUD 60¢ $9 77d
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs Fluxo W7M - Game 2 Winner BUY Fluxo W7M 29¢ $9 77d
UFC 327: Johnny Walker vs. Dominick Reyes (Light Heavyweight, Main Car BUY Johnny Walker 39¢ $10 78d
UFC 327: Cub Swanson vs. Nate Landwehr (Featherweight, Prelims) BUY Nate Landwehr 46¢ $10 78d
UFC 327: Patricio Pitbull vs. Aaron Pico (Featherweight, Prelims) BUY Patricio Pitbull 47¢ $11 78d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.19 · official $123.44 · 218 history records