Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T01:13:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3A
0x3af4…0055
sports · 13 markets active 1h ago
2.5score
−$1 -5%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY sports specialist⚠ Small sample
Net worth$4
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses6 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)9 / 13
History coverage144d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%
Chart Positions 4 History 9 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 72¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+39%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 64¢ 60¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Knicks vs. Spurs Knicks 37¢ 34¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 199.5 Over 85¢ 66¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-22%)
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Yes 32¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 82¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +40%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $7 +$1 +18%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +104%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 12 $1 $0 +34%
Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished? Jun 12 $1 $0 +2%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Mar 08 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Mar 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 65% +$1
other 20% −$1
crypto 10% −$1
world 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 199.5 BUY Over 85¢ $1 53m
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 72¢ $1 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $1 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 1h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $1 11h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $2 11h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 98¢ $2 23h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 88¢ $6 23h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 67¢ $1 24h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $1 24h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 74¢ $1 33h
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 47h
Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished? BUY No 98¢ $1 97d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 143d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1 143d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-19.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.3% -9.8% 71% 57% -8.9%
≤30d 7 -0.3% -9.8% 71% 57% -8.9%
≤90d 7 -0.3% -9.8% 71% 57% -8.9%
all 9 -10.7% -19.2% 67% 44% -14.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.2% 44% -14.2%
10% -26.9% 33% -22.4%
15% -34.0% 22% -29.9%
20% -40.4% 11% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.04 · official $4.04 (match) · 21 history records