Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:38:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3A 0x3af2…2a0f crypto 310 markets active 2h ago coverage 9d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 9d only
✗ bot/MM pace (364 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,129 (-9%) realized −$2,129 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +312% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +218% what you keep after slip
Net edge+218%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate63%484W / 282L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$78per market
Trades / day364.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,127
7 days−$2,971
14 days−$2,903
30 days−$2,903
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$863
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (364 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)+273.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 715 +328.7% +287.9% 62% 43% -12.3%
≤30d 766 +312.5% +273.2% 63% 41% -11.5%
≤90d 766 +312.5% +273.2% 63% 41% -11.5%
all 766 +312.5% +273.2% 63% 41% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover364.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +273.2% 41% -11.5%
10% ← realistic here +237.5% 37% -20.0%
15% +204.9% 35% -27.7%
20% +175.0% 34% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +312% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +32% → late +593% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
5.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$22 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$2,129
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses484 / 282
Open positions0
Markets (closed)766 / 310
History coverage9d ⚠
Avg bet$78
Trades / day364.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 766 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$102 -30926%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 25, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 17 $0 +$3 +703%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 26, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$1 -583%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$16 -3785%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 17 $0 +$9 +1926%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 19, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 17 $0 +$1 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$84 -21853%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $0 +$3 +577%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 4AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$17 -6808%
Solana Up or Down - March 18, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 +68%
Solana Up or Down - March 18, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$2 -734%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 17 $0 +$1 +259%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 21, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$28 -10587%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $90 −$90 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$71 -17188%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$4 +257%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $0 +$5 +1689%
Solana Up or Down - March 19, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 +65%
XRP Up or Down - March 18, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 +244%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 25, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $0 +$4 +2161%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 17 $13 −$11 -88%
Solana Up or Down - March 20, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$1 -1347%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 10PM ET Jun 17 $0 +$1 +387%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 26, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 17 $0 +$6 +4350%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 3PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$17 -6267%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 -6%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 20, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $0 +$10 +6761%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $0 +$20 +28117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 5AM ET Jun 17 $0 +$103 +26380%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 11PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$4 +316%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 17 $0 +$34 +13040%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $0 +$1 +418%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $39 −$33 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 17 $0 +$106 +25945%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $0 +$2 +1255%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $0 +$3 +704%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $0 +$3 +715%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 8PM ET Jun 17 $0 +$1 +503%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$50 -13163%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $0 +$3 +1033%
Solana Up or Down - March 19, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 +330%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 17 $0 +$1 +180%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$2 -4393%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 17 $0 +$2 +584%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6PM ET SELL Down 47¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6PM ET SELL Down 47¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5PM ET SELL Down 47¢ $42 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5PM ET SELL Down 47¢ $28 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $40 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $28 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4PM ET SELL Down 47¢ $132 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4PM ET SELL Down 47¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4PM ET SELL Down 47¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4PM ET SELL Down 47¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4PM ET SELL Down 47¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $44 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $40 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $28 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $28 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3PM ET SELL Up 47¢ $20 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3PM ET SELL Up 47¢ $20 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3PM ET SELL Up 47¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3PM ET SELL Up 47¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3PM ET SELL Up 47¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3PM ET SELL Up 47¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $28 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $28 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2PM ET SELL Up 10¢ $0 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2PM ET SELL Up 47¢ $3 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.27 · official $0.00 · 3500 history records