Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:05:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
3A 0x3af1…2330 crypto 85 markets active 5d ago coverage 540d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$45 (-0%) realized −$45 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate46%39W / 46L
Whale WR9%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$182per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$86est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$27
14 days−$27
30 days−$33
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% −$52
other 19% +$12
crypto 15% +$26
politics 7% −$3
world 3% −$30
weather 1% −$66
economics 1% −$1
culture 0% $0
finance 0% $0
tech 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -29.9% -36.6% 33% 0% -23.7%
≤30d 4 -23.7% -31.0% 25% 0% -20.2%
≤90d 25 -5.2% -14.2% 20% 4% -10.9%
all 85 -2.5% -11.7% 46% 13% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 13% -10.2%
10% -20.2% 7% -18.8%
15% -27.9% 0% -26.6%
20% -35.0% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
72% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 9% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +1% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$9 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

540d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$45
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses39 / 46
Whale WR (big bets)9%
Est. fees paid−$86
Open positions0
Markets (closed)85 / 85
History coverage540d
Avg bet$182
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 85 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 12 $32 −$29 -91%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 12 $47 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $95 +$2 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 25 $104 −$5 -5%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 18? May 18 $25 −$2 -7%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $72 in May? May 18 $54 −$2 -3%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 09 $10 −$2 -23%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 09 $171 −$1 -0%
Rome: Remy Bertola vs Filip Jianu Apr 21 $570 −$10 -2%
Houston Astros vs. Cleveland Guardians Apr 21 $2 $0 +2%
Abidjan: Massimo Giunta vs Andrew Fenty Apr 21 $235 −$20 -9%
Atlanta Braves vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 Apr 21 $378 $0 +0%
Savannah: Kei Nishikori vs Colton Smith Apr 21 $19 −$1 -8%
Gwangju: Mark Lajal vs Maximus Jones Apr 20 $870 −$14 -2%
Madrid Open, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Rei Sakamoto Apr 20 $580 −$9 -2%
Shymkent: Buvaysar Gadamauri vs Sean Cuenin Apr 20 $69 $0 -0%
Madrid Open, Qualification: Luca Van Assche vs Diego Dedura-Palomero Apr 20 $81 $0 +0%
Rome: Henri Squire vs Stefanos Sakellaridis Apr 20 $57 $0 -0%
Madrid Open, Qualification: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Moez Echargui Apr 20 $152 −$2 -1%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Apr 20 $195 $0 +0%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Apr 19 $230 $0 +0%
Warriors vs. Clippers Apr 16 $100 +$10 +10%
Opendoor (OPEN) Up or Down on April 16? Apr 15 $7 $0 -2%
Backpack FDV above $700M one day after launch? Apr 02 $54 +$6 +11%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in March? Apr 02 $757 +$5 +1%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 13? Mar 13 $19 $0 -0%
Will "Louis Theroux: Inside The Manosphere" be the #2 global Netflix m Mar 13 $23 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in March? Mar 07 $105 +$1 +0%
Fabric FDV above $50M one day after launch? Mar 06 $92 $0 +0%
Opinion FDV above $250M one day after launch? Mar 02 $139 +$10 +8%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of February? Feb 25 $101 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February? Feb 25 $21 +$1 +5%
Opinion FDV above $2B one day after launch? Feb 13 $90 +$27 +30%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in February? Feb 13 $22 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $180 in January? Feb 02 $43 $0 +0%
Lighter FDV above $5B one day after launch? Jan 23 $133 $0 +0%
Will global temperature increase by less than 1.00ºC in September 2025 Dec 31 $133 −$66 -50%
Meteora FDV above $1B one day after launch? Oct 08 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $3400 in September? Oct 08 $21 +$5 +25%
Will Solana reach $300 in September? Sep 13 $66 −$8 -12%
Will Solana dip to $160 in September? Sep 13 $60 +$16 +26%
Will Ethereum reach $6200 in August? Sep 03 $18 $0 +1%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31? Sep 03 $20 +$3 +14%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by August 31? Sep 03 $25 $0 +2%
Will Solana dip to $130 in August? Sep 03 $30 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $2800 in August? Sep 03 $50 +$1 +2%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? Aug 19 $20 −$2 -11%
Will Solana reach $195 in August? Aug 13 $33 +$2 +8%
Will Ethereum reach $4700 in August? Aug 13 $40 +$4 +11%
Will Solana reach $175 in August? Aug 13 $29 +$5 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL Yes $3 5d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? SELL No 24¢ $20 5d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? SELL No 24¢ $3 5d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? SELL No 24¢ $24 5d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY No 24¢ $47 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 60¢ $97 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 59¢ $95 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 35¢ $1 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 35¢ $1 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 35¢ $1 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 35¢ $11 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 35¢ $17 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 47¢ $52 23d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 52¢ $47 23d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 52¢ $104 23d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 18? SELL Up 24¢ $23 30d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 18? BUY Up 25¢ $4 30d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 18? BUY Up 25¢ $21 30d
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $72 in May? SELL Yes 63¢ $20 30d
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $72 in May? BUY Yes 63¢ $20 30d
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $72 in May? SELL Yes 66¢ $33 30d
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $72 in May? BUY Yes 68¢ $34 30d
Will Trump visit China by May 15? SELL No $8 39d
Will Trump visit China by May 15? BUY No $10 39d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $171 39d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $171 39d
Rome: Remy Bertola vs Filip Jianu SELL Remy Bertola 55¢ $1 57d
Houston Astros vs. Cleveland Guardians SELL Cleveland Guardians 55¢ $2 57d
Abidjan: Massimo Giunta vs Andrew Fenty SELL Andrew Fenty 32¢ $215 57d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 255 history records