Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T04:05:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3A 0x3aee…8cd2 sports 38 markets active 1h ago coverage 80d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$186 (-7%) realized −$185 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate20%7W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$74per market
Trades / day6.7pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$99now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$151
7 days−$151
14 days−$151
30 days−$151
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% −$134
other 25% −$60
world 10% +$3
politics 4% $0
culture 1% +$5
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -58.8% -62.7% 25% 25% -54.9%
≤30d 4 -58.8% -62.7% 25% 25% -54.9%
≤90d 35 -4.9% -14.0% 20% 11% -15.8%
all 35 -4.9% -14.0% 20% 11% -15.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.0% 11% -15.8%
10% -22.2% 6% -23.8%
15% -29.7% 6% -31.2%
20% -36.6% 6% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 81% · top 2 92% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
8.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$9 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

80d coverage
Net worth$99
Realized−$185
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses7 / 28
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions3
Markets (closed)35 / 38
History coverage80d
Avg bet$74
Trades / day6.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Under 60¢ 60¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Under 53¢ 52¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $91 +$59 +65%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $122 −$120 -99%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $61 −$60 -98%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $109 $0 +0%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 15 $91 $0 -0%
Trump out as President before GTA VI? Apr 15 $6 $0 -4%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 15 $135 −$2 -1%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $98 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $62 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $58 $0 -0%
Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 14 $274 −$32 -12%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $65 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? Apr 14 $4 $0 -2%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $91 $0 -0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $172 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Apr 14 $18 $0 -1%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $127 $0 -0%
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Apr 14 $3 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 14 $93 $0 +0%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 11 $86 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 09 $54 −$3 -5%
Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI? Apr 08 $100 −$2 -2%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 08 $190 −$2 -1%
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 08 $116 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 08 $154 −$1 -0%
Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI? Apr 08 $137 −$3 -2%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 08 $78 −$2 -2%
Will Kon Knueppel win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award? Apr 07 $13 $0 -2%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 07 $15 $0 +1%
New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? Apr 07 $24 +$5 +21%
New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI? Apr 05 $1 $0 -5%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 05 $7 $0 -1%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 05 $12 +$8 +72%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 05 $2 $0 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $26 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $35 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 60¢ $40 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $15 23h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 60¢ $46 23h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $61 23h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 29¢ $61 23h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 60¢ $46 23h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $15 23h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $61 23h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 84¢ $7 63d
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 93¢ $22 63d
Trump out as President before GTA VI? SELL No 47¢ $6 63d
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 86¢ $7 63d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 91¢ $8 64d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $8 64d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 95¢ $22 64d
Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 93¢ $8 64d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 94¢ $7 64d
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? SELL No 51¢ $1 64d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 90¢ $10 64d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 89¢ $18 64d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $17 64d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 91¢ $10 64d
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? SELL No 51¢ $1 64d
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 93¢ $15 64d
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 95¢ $18 67d
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $5 69d
Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI? SELL No 46¢ $5 70d
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 88¢ $7 70d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $98.90 · official $98.91 (match) · 552 history records