Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T14:25:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3A 0x3aed…9282 world 53 markets active 2h ago coverage 491d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate51%27W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 54% −$1
other 30% −$2
sports 7% +$1
politics 5% −$1
crypto 2% $0
tech 1% $0
finance 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.5% -9.1% 43% 0% -8.3%
≤30d 20 -0.5% -10.0% 25% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 22 +0.5% -9.1% 32% 5% -9.5%
all 53 -2.8% -12.1% 51% 4% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 4% -9.6%
10% -20.5% 0% -18.2%
15% -28.2% 0% -26.1%
20% -35.2% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 50% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

491d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses27 / 26
Open positions0
Markets (closed)53 / 53
History coverage491d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 53 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 25 $45 $0 +0%
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 25 $32 $0 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? Jun 24 $44 $0 +1%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 24 $18 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 24 $41 +$4 +9%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 23 $38 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 22 $17 −$1 -7%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $43 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 03 $2 $0 -4%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 02 $44 +$1 +2%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 02 $1 $0 -0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 02 $1 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $43 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $83 −$2 -3%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 31 $38 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 30 $83 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 30 $38 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 30 $37 −$3 -8%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 28 $41 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 27 $44 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $9 +$1 +17%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 25 $2 $0 +4%
Will xAI have the top AI model on June 30? Dec 09 $14 $0 +2%
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 09 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 9-12%? Jun 24 $6 $0 +3%
Will Lee Jae-myung win by between 20-23%? Jun 04 $1 $0 +3%
Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in Quebec in the next C May 05 $1 $0 +4%
Will the Conservative Party win by 0–24 seats? May 05 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the New Democratic Party win the third most seats in the next Can May 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 26 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Liberal Party win by 100–124 seats? Apr 26 $10 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in April? Apr 25 $10 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the Eastern Conference? Apr 24 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Bloc Québécois win the most seats in Quebec in the next Canad Apr 24 $10 $0 -2%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? Apr 23 $10 $0 +0%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? Apr 22 $10 $0 +0%
Will Trump end Department of Education in first 100 days? Apr 19 $10 $0 +0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. be out as Secretary of Health and Human Ser Apr 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump visit Saudi Arabia in 2025? Apr 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2025? Apr 16 $11 $0 +0%
US lifts Russia sanctions before April? Mar 28 $13 $0 +0%
Will Arkansas win the West region of the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Mar 27 $14 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 650 or more times March 21-28? Mar 27 $13 $0 +2%
Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 21 $13 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 575-599 times March 14-21? Mar 18 $13 $0 +3%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 16 $13 $0 -0%
Solana above $145 on March 14? Mar 15 $13 $0 +3%
Will Club Brugge or Aston Villa advance in the UCL Round of 16? Mar 13 $11 +$1 +4%
Fordham vs. George Mason Mar 03 $10 +$2 +15%
Wofford vs. Western Carolina Feb 25 $11 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $45 1h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $45 3h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $32 7h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $32 10h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $45 17h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $44 19h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 26h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $3 26h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 28h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 28h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 60¢ $45 30h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 55¢ $41 33h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $8 47h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $30 47h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 80¢ $30 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 80¢ $8 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $0 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $13 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $7 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $7 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 23¢ $3 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 23¢ $13 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $8 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $9 2d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $6 21d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $37 21d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $43 22d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL Yes $2 22d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY Yes $1 22d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY Yes $0 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 153 history records