Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:51:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3A 0x3aea…8369 other 60 markets active 1h ago coverage 80d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$1,541 (-3%) realized −$1,541 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate7%4W / 56L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,023per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$11
14 days−$16
30 days−$1,458
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% −$36
politics 31% −$23
sports 6% −$1,456
culture 4% −$3
economics 2% −$2
world 2% −$54
crypto 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-15.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 25 -8.1% -16.8% 8% 0% -15.4%
≤90d 60 -7.1% -15.9% 7% 3% -11.8%
all 60 -7.1% -15.9% 7% 3% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.9% 3% -11.8%
10% -24.0% 3% -20.3%
15% -31.3% 3% -28.0%
20% -38.1% 2% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 98% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,262) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -7% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$29 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

80d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,541
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses4 / 56
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions0
Markets (closed)60 / 60
History coverage80d
Avg bet$1,023
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 60 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $816 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $1,514 −$2 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $2,459 −$3 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $2,197 −$3 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $804 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 12 $796 −$1 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $889 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $628 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $882 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $907 −$1 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 05 $614 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $2,094 −$2 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $801 −$1 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $616 −$1 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in May? Jun 04 $10 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $100 in May? Jun 04 $415 +$1 +0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 31 $601 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 29 $406 −$1 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 26 $547 −$1 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 26 $947 −$1 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $847 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $750 −$1 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 25 $552 −$1 -0%
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins May 25 $67 −$67 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) May 25 $1,364 −$1,364 -100%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 05 $1,231 −$2 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $1,065 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $2,197 −$3 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 01 $1,359 −$2 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 29 $1,019 −$2 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 28 $1,347 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 22 $3,380 −$3 -0%
Senators vs. Hurricanes Apr 22 $27 −$27 -100%
Ducks vs. Oilers Apr 22 $50 +$29 +60%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $1,045 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $1,309 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $1,242 −$1 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $1,252 −$1 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $1,312 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $1,038 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $1,044 −$1 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $2,380 −$2 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $1,045 −$1 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $1,039 −$1 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $1,262 −$1 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $1,290 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 10 $1,159 −$1 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 09 $1,301 −$1 -0%
Blackhawks vs. Sharks Apr 09 $19 −$19 -100%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 09 $36 −$36 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $815 35m
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $816 1h
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $254 19h
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $254 21h
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $281 24h
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $282 25h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $304 27h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $304 29h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $774 4d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $775 4d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $803 6d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $804 6d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $795 6d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $796 7d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $888 7d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $889 7d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $627 7d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $628 7d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $881 11d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $882 11d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $905 12d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $907 12d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $613 13d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $614 14d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $914 14d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $915 14d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $799 14d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $801 14d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $615 14d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $616 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 158 history records