Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:55:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
3A 0x3ae9…5ce3 world 43 markets active 1h ago coverage 474d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$7 (+1%) realized +$8 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate50%21W / 21L
Drawdown33%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$6
14 days+$5
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 56% +$5
other 17% −$2
politics 8% $0
weather 6% +$1
crypto 5% +$1
sports 5% $0
finance 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +5.1% -4.9% 44% 11% -8.1%
≤30d 21 +0.5% -9.1% 33% 5% -9.0%
≤90d 21 +0.5% -9.1% 33% 5% -9.0%
all 42 +0.5% -9.1% 50% 2% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 2% -9.0%
10% -17.8% 2% -17.7%
15% -25.7% 2% -25.6%
20% -33.0% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.29 per $1 lost it wins $3.29
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

474d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized+$8
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses21 / 21
Open positions1
Markets (closed)42 / 43
History coverage474d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Yes 26¢ 25¢ $36 $35 −$1 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 20 $56 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 19 $55 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $13 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $7 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $47 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $80 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $11 +$5 +43%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $45 +$1 +2%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $49 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 12 $17 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $49 +$1 +2%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Jun 11 $4 −$2 -47%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $43 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 09 $46 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 08 $3 $0 +9%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 08 $50 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $45 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $46 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $51 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $45 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $96 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $1 $0 -5%
Will Iran declare war on Israel by Friday? Jun 23 $2 $0 +2%
Will Han Duck-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $2 $0 +3%
Will Anders Arborelius be the next pope? May 10 $1 $0 +1%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 04 $18 $0 -0%
Will the New Democratic Party win the third most seats in the next Can Apr 03 $19 −$1 -3%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 again by March 31? Apr 02 $19 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 66°F or higher on March 26? Mar 28 $19 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 25? Mar 25 $18 +$1 +4%
Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin March 18-24? Mar 25 $16 $0 +3%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 24 $2 $0 +0%
Will Olaf Scholz be the next Chancellor of Germany? Mar 23 $16 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by Friday? Mar 23 $18 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 52°F or below on March 18? Mar 19 $18 $0 +1%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 17 $17 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 54°F or higher on March 16? Mar 16 $16 $0 +1%
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 15 $2 $0 +0%
Will the CDU/CSU win 25-30% of the vote in the German election? Mar 15 $17 $0 +1%
Wyoming vs. Fresno State Mar 03 $18 $0 +0%
North Carolina vs. Virginia Tech Mar 03 $18 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 47-48°F on March 4? Mar 03 $17 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $35 1h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $24 14h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $32 14h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $56 19h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 56¢ $16 37h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 56¢ $11 37h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 56¢ $29 39h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 56¢ $55 41h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $11 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $7 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $5 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $7 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $39 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $39 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $21 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $29 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $50 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $7 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $9 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 11¢ $15 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 7¢ $11 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $9 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $37 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 66¢ $45 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.00 · official $34.30 (match) · 128 history records