Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T19:02:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3A 0x3ae0…748a crypto 90 markets active 6d ago coverage 1d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 1d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (3403 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$5,059 (-67%) realized −$5,059 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -51% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -63% what you keep after slip
Net edge-63%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate19%47W / 201L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$84per market
Trades / day3403.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$148
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (3403 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-56.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 248 -51.4% -56.1% 19% 10% -21.3%
≤30d 248 -51.4% -56.1% 19% 10% -21.3%
≤90d 248 -51.4% -56.1% 19% 10% -21.3%
all 248 -51.4% -56.1% 19% 10% -21.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3403.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -56.1% 10% -21.3%
10% ← realistic here -60.3% 5% -28.8%
15% -64.1% 4% -35.7%
20% -67.6% 4% -42.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -51% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late -76% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
37.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$7 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5,059
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses47 / 201
Open positions0
Markets (closed)248 / 90
History coverage1d ⚠
Avg bet$84
Trades / day3403.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 248 Trades
no open positions (158 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 28 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 28 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 28 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 28 $2 +$4 +217%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 28 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 28 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 28 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 28 $18 −$18 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 28 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 28 $5 +$3 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 28 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 28 $25 −$24 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 28 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 28 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 28 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 28 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 28 $6 −$6 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 18, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 28 $1 +$2 +116%
XRP Up or Down - May 18, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $3 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records