Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T04:35:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
3A 0x3adf…9c7b sports 228 markets active 1h ago coverage 76d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$809 (+4%) realized +$678 · open +$131
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate59%134W / 92L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$98per market
Trades / day7.5pace
Fees−$169est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$2,934now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$38
7 days+$239
14 days+$174
30 days+$286
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% +$346
other 26% +$473
crypto 5% −$177
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +5.6% -4.5% 53% 47% +5.2%
≤30d 63 -3.1% -12.3% 56% 54% -1.8%
≤90d 226 -2.0% -11.3% 59% 57% -6.9%
all 226 -2.0% -11.3% 59% 57% -6.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 57% -6.9%
10% -19.8% 49% -15.8%
15% -27.5% 37% -23.9%
20% -34.6% 23% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$43 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$2,934
Realized+$678
Unrealized+$131
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses134 / 92
Est. fees paid−$169
Open positions2
Markets (closed)226 / 228
History coverage76d
Avg bet$98
Trades / day7.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 226 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by June 30, 2026? No 95¢ 99¢ $2,652 $2,785 +$133 (+5%)
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs Natus Vincere 61¢ 60¢ $150 $149 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 36 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $197 −$27 -14%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $202 +$8 +4%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $90 −$13 -14%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $211 +$80 +38%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $96 −$95 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $35 +$29 +83%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 25 $10 −$5 -49%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $41 −$15 -37%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $170 +$27 +16%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $46 +$23 +50%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $58 +$88 +152%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $221 +$87 +39%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $121 +$150 +124%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $104 −$60 -58%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $58 −$38 -65%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $40 −$39 -99%
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 15 $61 −$60 -99%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $20 +$30 +146%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $40 −$40 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $45 −$4 -10%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $28 +$17 +59%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $90 +$39 +43%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $71 +$18 +26%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $50 +$22 +44%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $17 −$17 -99%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Quali Jun 12 $24 +$12 +50%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $35 +$19 +55%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $64 +$36 +57%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $301 +$42 +14%
LoL: Weibo Gaming Youth Team vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $12 −$12 -98%
LoL: Weibo Gaming Youth Team vs Saigon Warriors (BO3) - Asia Masters G Jun 11 $20 +$13 +66%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $54 −$53 -99%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino (BO3) - Asia Masters Group C Jun 10 $37 +$17 +46%
Rainbow Six Siege: Shifters vs Team Secret (BO1) - Europe MENA League Jun 09 $23 +$13 +55%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $74 +$49 +65%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $55 +$20 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 08 $16 −$12 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 08 $9 +$8 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 08 $26 −$22 -85%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 08 $31 −$31 -99%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 08 $13 −$1 -5%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $50 +$12 +24%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $6 −$6 -99%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 07 $17 −$12 -72%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $11 −$9 -85%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 07 $50 +$11 +23%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $50 +$18 +36%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $18 −$18 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Jun 07 $48 +$8 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ (BO3) - The International Europe Closed BUY Natus Vincere 61¢ $152 30m
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 85¢ $167 47m
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 81¢ $210 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 45¢ $77 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 77¢ $202 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 74¢ $197 3h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $90 3h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 100¢ $77 3h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 93¢ $214 3h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 68¢ $211 5h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 61¢ $40 14h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 61¢ $56 14h
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL Yes 25¢ $5 26h
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 26h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 34¢ $26 26h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 52¢ $41 27h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 54¢ $35 27h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $170 2d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 66¢ $46 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 39¢ $58 3d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 89¢ $50 4d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 89¢ $50 4d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 66¢ $20 4d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 62¢ $30 4d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 62¢ $10 4d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 60¢ $10 4d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 59¢ $51 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 44¢ $100 5d
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $100 5d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 44¢ $21 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,933.88 · official $2,933.88 (match) · 659 history records