Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T21:58:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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3A 0x3ade…b5bc crypto 585 markets active 0h ago coverage 137d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$7,603 (-10%) realized −$7,536 · open −$67
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate49%288W / 297L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$132per market
Trades / day9.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 137d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$10,849
other 3% −$279
sports 1% +$121
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +25.3% +13.4% 62% 62% -14.6%
≤30d 24 +25.3% +13.4% 62% 62% -14.6%
≤90d 500 -3.3% -12.5% 50% 48% -22.8%
all 585 -3.6% -12.8% 49% 48% -22.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.8% 48% -22.9%
10% -21.1% 46% -30.3%
15% -28.7% 44% -37.0%
20% -35.7% 41% -43.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -7% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$94 vs −$130 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized−$7,536
Unrealized−$67
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses288 / 297
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)585 / 585
History coverage137d
Avg bet$132
Trades / day9.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 585 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Down 31¢ 10¢ $100 $33 −$67 (-67%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 122 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 24 $459 −$459 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 24 $52 +$86 +165%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 24 $26 +$23 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 24 $104 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 24 $414 −$400 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 24 $208 −$166 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 24 $310 +$276 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 24 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 24 $207 +$199 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 24 $621 −$621 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 24 $623 −$623 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 24 $311 −$300 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 24 $314 +$383 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 24 $311 −$300 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 24 $415 +$433 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 24 $517 +$472 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 24 $313 +$436 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 24 $208 +$234 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 24 $52 +$56 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 24 $102 +$27 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 24 $103 +$33 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 24 $26 +$22 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 24 $26 +$41 +157%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 24 $26 +$19 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET May 04 $42 −$40 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET May 04 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET May 04 $57 +$22 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET May 04 $155 −$150 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET May 04 $150 +$125 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET May 04 $155 −$150 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET May 04 $91 −$81 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET May 04 $124 +$110 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET May 04 $78 −$75 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET May 04 $155 +$62 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET May 04 $93 −$89 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET May 04 $104 +$146 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET May 04 $94 +$59 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET May 04 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET May 04 $150 +$140 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET May 04 $258 −$250 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET May 04 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET May 04 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET May 04 $37 +$22 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET May 04 $40 +$33 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET May 04 $33 −$32 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET May 03 $103 +$89 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET May 03 $237 +$40 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET May 03 $186 −$8 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET May 03 $12 +$6 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET May 03 $52 +$46 +89%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $26 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $26 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $26 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $138 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $26 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $26 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $48 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $104 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $104 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $104 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $104 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $104 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Up 10¢ $42 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $104 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $104 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $104 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.37 · official $33.38 (match) · 1569 history records