Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T08:22:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3A 0x3ade…ac2b crypto 152 markets active 1h ago coverage 151d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$751 (-19%) realized −$717 · open −$34
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate31%47W / 103L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$57now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$321
30 days−$253
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 65% −$337
other 16% −$133
sports 13% −$94
weather 3% −$102
politics 2% −$87
world 1% −$27
economics 0% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-27.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 18 -40.6% -46.3% 11% 11% -39.3%
≤90d 35 -43.4% -48.7% 14% 14% -45.3%
all 150 -20.2% -27.8% 31% 29% -27.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.8% 29% -27.1%
10% -34.7% 29% -34.1%
15% -41.0% 26% -40.5%
20% -46.8% 22% -46.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -40% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -39% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$23 · ×1.48 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

151d coverage
Net worth$57
Realized−$717
Unrealized−$34
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses47 / 103
Open positions2
Markets (closed)150 / 152
History coverage151d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 150 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 20? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $34 $43 +$9 (+27%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 15-21? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $57 $14 −$43 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 71 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $9 −$9 -94%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $12 −$11 -94%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $34 −$31 -94%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +68%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $50 −$49 -98%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $22 −$20 -94%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $13 −$12 -94%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $62 −$58 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $42 −$39 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 7? Jun 07 $95 −$90 -95%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $88 −$83 -94%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 May 18-24? Jun 05 $49 −$49 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $93 −$87 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 4? Jun 05 $150 −$150 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 June 1-7? Jun 03 $57 +$453 +798%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 02 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 May 25-31? May 28 $13 −$13 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $79,000 on May 12? May 12 $9 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET May 12 $9 −$9 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET May 12 $5 −$1 -14%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 on May 8? May 08 $9 −$9 -94%
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 on May 5? May 05 $3 −$3 -94%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 April 27-May 3? May 02 $31 −$29 -94%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 on May 1? May 01 $35 −$33 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 on April 30? Apr 30 $12 −$12 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $73,000 on April 29? Apr 29 $17 −$16 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 on April 29? Apr 29 $28 +$37 +131%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1PM ET Apr 29 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Apr 29 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 12PM ET Apr 29 $18 +$46 +248%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Apr 29 $9 +$9 +93%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? Apr 29 $259 −$178 -69%
Nuggets vs. Suns Mar 25 $5 −$5 -100%
T20 Nigeria Invitational Tournament, Women: Ghana vs South Africa Mar 24 $2 −$1 -76%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 23? Mar 21 $11 −$5 -50%
Suns vs. Spurs Mar 20 $28 −$28 -100%
Howard Bison vs. Michigan Wolverines Mar 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Siena Saints vs. Duke Blue Devils Mar 19 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Mar 17 $6 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 1AM ET Mar 17 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Mar 17 $11 −$5 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Mar 17 $5 +$6 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 8PM ET Mar 10 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 7PM ET Mar 10 $10 +$10 +97%
Raptors vs. Rockets Mar 09 $11 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Mar 09 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,500 on March 8? Mar 09 $9 −$9 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Mar 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Mar 08 $5 +$4 +73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 20? BUY Yes 3¢ $37 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 15-21? BUY Yes 5¢ $21 25h
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 15-21? BUY Yes 6¢ $40 26h
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 5¢ $9 7d
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 3¢ $12 7d
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 5¢ $34 7d
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $3 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $2 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 4¢ $50 9d
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 10? BUY Yes 2¢ $22 10d
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 9? BUY Yes 8¢ $13 11d
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 8? BUY Yes 2¢ $14 11d
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 8? BUY Yes 9¢ $48 11d
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 7? BUY Yes 14¢ $42 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 7? BUY Down 19¢ $95 13d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,000 on June 6? BUY Yes 7¢ $88 14d
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 5? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 14d
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 5? BUY Yes 6¢ $91 14d
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 4? BUY Yes 5¢ $32 15d
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 4? BUY Yes 11¢ $118 15d
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 June 1-7? SELL Yes 55¢ $509 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 18d
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 June 1-7? BUY Yes 6¢ $57 18d
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 May 25-31? BUY Yes 4¢ $13 22d
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 May 18-24? BUY Yes 10¢ $49 30d
Will Bitcoin dip to $79,000 on May 12? BUY Yes 8¢ $9 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $9 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET SELL Down 24¢ $5 39d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $57.37 · official $57.37 (match) · 310 history records