Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T17:31:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
3A 0x3add…5e9f other 172 markets active 2h ago coverage 93d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$519 (+11%) realized +$513 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate52%82W / 76L
Drawdown43%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit13%portable
Net worth$831now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$18
7 days+$154
14 days+$161
30 days+$275
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 86% +$239
sports 11% +$232
crypto 2% −$28
tech 1% −$3
world 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-6.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +27.3% +15.2% 67% 67% +13.7%
≤30d 63 +2.2% -7.5% 56% 54% +4.7%
≤90d 156 +3.3% -6.6% 51% 49% +0.1%
all 158 +3.9% -6.0% 52% 50% +0.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.0% 50% +0.8%
10% -15.0% 49% -8.9%
15% -23.2% 45% -17.7%
20% -30.7% 38% -25.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$18 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.33 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

93d coverage
Net worth$831
Realized+$513
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses82 / 76
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions14
Markets (closed)158 / 172
History coverage93d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown43%
Kalshi-fit13%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 158 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 12¢ $100 $142 +$42 (+42%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $100 $122 +$22 (+22%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Yes 83¢ 81¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $100 $91 −$9 (-9%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $110 $88 −$22 (-20%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Yes 87¢ 86¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $20 $32 +$12 (+59%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 34¢ 14¢ $15 $6 −$9 (-58%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Yes 21¢ 2¢ $20 $1 −$19 (-93%)
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 17¢ 2¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-90%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 +$14 +67%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $20 +$12 +61%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $20 +$11 +56%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $40 +$11 +28%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $51 +$19 +37%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$30 +289%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $20 +$15 +72%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $122 +$66 +54%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $51 +$11 +22%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $51 +$23 +45%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$25 +248%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$17 +165%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $31 +$28 +92%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $10 +$4 +37%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $15 +$6 +41%
Will Chile win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $10 +$25 +248%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $10 +$5 +45%
Will Tajikistan win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Ethiopia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Armenia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $15 −$15 -100%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 09 $10 +$5 +49%
Will Niger win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $51 +$13 +25%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $10 +$7 +72%
Jordan vs. Colombia: Draw at halftime? Jun 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $10 +$20 +196%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $101 +$14 +14%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $20 +$9 +43%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-05? Jun 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Russia win on 2026-06-05? Jun 06 $15 +$5 +32%
Will China PR win on 2026-06-05? Jun 06 $20 +$7 +33%
Will Bangladesh win on 2026-06-05? Jun 06 $13 +$26 +195%
France leading at halftime? Jun 05 $10 +$7 +72%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-04? Jun 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Northern Ireland win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $10 +$12 +118%
Cambodia vs. Bhutan: Draw at halftime? Jun 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Andorra vs. Liechtenstein end in a draw? Jun 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Slovenia win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $61 −$61 -100%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-03? Jun 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-03? Jun 04 $30 −$30 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 87¢ $50 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 21¢ $21 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $30 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $20 26h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $20 26h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $103 45h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $103 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $40 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $20 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $20 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 83¢ $101 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 63¢ $102 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $51 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $20 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $51 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $51 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $102 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $51 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $20 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 4d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 61¢ $27 4d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 4d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 5d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $31 5d
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 33¢ $14 5d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 6d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 6d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 6d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $830.52 · official $830.22 (match) · 433 history records