Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:44:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
3A 0x3ac7…4ff2 other 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$56 (-7%) realized −$67 · open +$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate71%5W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$95per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 78% −$90
sports 16% +$28
world 5% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.3% -9.3% 71% 57% -18.3%
≤30d 7 +0.3% -9.3% 71% 57% -18.3%
≤90d 7 +0.3% -9.3% 71% 57% -18.3%
all 7 +0.3% -9.3% 71% 57% -18.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 57% -18.3%
10% -18.0% 43% -26.1%
15% -25.9% 29% -33.2%
20% -33.2% 0% -39.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 63% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% too few recent
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$78 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized−$67
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses5 / 2
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)7 / 8
History coverage5d
Avg bet$95
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 74¢ 98¢ $35 $46 +$11 (+32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $40 +$19 +47%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $250 −$105 -42%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $38 +$8 +22%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $61 +$29 +48%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $114 +$6 +5%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $125 +$28 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $20 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 64¢ $42 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $59 2h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $40 25h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $51 37h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 27¢ $47 38h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $101 38h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 91¢ $73 38h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 91¢ $73 38h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $149 47h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 75¢ $19 47h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 77¢ $20 47h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 93¢ $71 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $31 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $120 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $114 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 22¢ $38 2d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 100¢ $152 2d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 80¢ $100 5d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 80¢ $25 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.72 · official $45.72 (match) · 24 history records