Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:55:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3A 0x3ac6…783e other 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 40d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$44 (-6%) realized −$67 · open +$23
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate40%6W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$208now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days−$47
14 days−$85
30 days−$42
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% −$7
other 31% −$31
sports 16% −$5
politics 7% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-28.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -6.2% -15.2% 33% 33% -28.5%
≤30d 9 -6.4% -15.3% 44% 33% -19.9%
≤90d 15 -21.4% -28.9% 40% 33% -22.5%
all 15 -21.4% -28.9% 40% 33% -22.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.9% 33% -22.5%
10% -35.7% 20% -29.9%
15% -41.9% 20% -36.7%
20% -47.6% 13% -42.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 68% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -28% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$16 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$208
Realized−$67
Unrealized+$23
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses6 / 9
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)15 / 19
History coverage40d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 70¢ 94¢ $70 $94 +$24 (+34%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 80¢ 80¢ $48 $48 −$0 (-0%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 70¢ 69¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $32 $32 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $27 +$13 +48%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $9 −$7 -81%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $6 +$9 +146%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $26 −$26 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 18 $61 −$20 -34%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $96 −$16 -16%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 08 $38 −$38 -99%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 02 $55 +$5 +10%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $53 +$37 +70%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $16 −$16 -99%
World Championships: Sweden vs. Czechia May 18 $14 −$14 -99%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 13, 2026? May 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Alex Smalley win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 18 $25 +$5 +20%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 15, 2026? May 15 $26 +$4 +17%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 14, 2026? May 15 $20 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $32 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $35 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes $2 19h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 76¢ $15 19h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $27 19h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 85¢ $26 19h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 41¢ $9 19h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $6 19h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 80¢ $49 19h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 46¢ $40 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No $10 6d
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY Yes 63¢ $19 13d
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY Yes 63¢ $19 13d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $43 13d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 72¢ $50 13d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $16 33d
World Championships: Sweden vs. Czechia BUY Sweden 69¢ $14 34d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 58¢ $10 35d
Will Alex Smalley win the 2026 PGA Championship? BUY No 83¢ $25 35d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $15 35d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 15, 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $26 37d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 14, 2026? BUY No 33¢ $5 38d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 14, 2026? BUY Yes 74¢ $15 39d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 70¢ $70 39d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 30¢ $36 39d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 31¢ $37 39d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 58¢ $53 40d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $28 40d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 91¢ $55 40d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 13, 2026? BUY No 27¢ $6 40d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $208.14 · official $208.15 (match) · 38 history records