Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:39:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3A 0x3ac5…852c sports 114 markets active 1h ago coverage 225d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,344 (-59%) realized −$3,402 · open +$58
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -37% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%27W / 83L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$317now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$50
7 days−$123
14 days−$123
30 days−$123
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% −$2,420
weather 26% −$857
other 8% −$115
crypto 6% −$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-42.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +24.6% +12.8% 44% 44% -50.7%
≤30d 24 +14.0% +3.1% 46% 46% -37.2%
≤90d 105 -33.6% -40.0% 26% 26% -59.5%
all 110 -36.7% -42.7% 25% 25% -69.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -42.7% 25% -69.4%
10% -48.2% 25% -72.3%
15% -53.2% 24% -75.0%
20% -57.8% 20% -77.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -58% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -37% · $-wt -68% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -53% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$51 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

225d coverage
Net worth$317
Realized−$3,402
Unrealized+$58
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses27 / 83
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions4
Markets (closed)110 / 114
History coverage225d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 110 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $182 $207 +$26 (+14%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $50 $85 +$35 (+71%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $22 $21 −$0 (-2%)
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $6 $3 −$3 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 64 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $51 −$30 -58%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff Jun 14 $6 +$10 +165%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $14 −$14 -98%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $5 +$14 +276%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $15 −$15 -97%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +42%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 11 $8 −$8 -97%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 10 $5 +$10 +215%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $5 +$6 +121%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 10 $18 +$24 +129%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 08 $73 −$71 -98%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $6 −$3 -61%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $5 +$14 +265%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $15 −$15 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $18 +$16 +86%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 07 $37 −$36 -98%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs NRG - Map 2 Winner Jun 06 $13 −$3 -23%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $20 +$16 +79%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $20 +$9 +46%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 03 $11 −$11 -97%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 01 $14 +$19 +130%
LoL: LNG Esports vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana May 14 $18 −$18 -98%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 14? May 14 $13 −$12 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 14? May 14 $31 −$31 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 13 $15 −$7 -46%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 13? May 13 $16 +$11 +70%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 13? May 13 $19 −$17 -89%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on May 13? May 13 $3 −$3 -90%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on May 13? May 13 $2 −$2 -94%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Anyone's Legend - Game 2 Winner May 07 $17 −$17 -98%
Will FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw? May 06 $13 +$4 +27%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? May 04 $30 −$29 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 4? May 04 $30 −$21 -70%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on May 3? May 04 $34 −$34 -100%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LNG Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana May 03 $21 +$6 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 3? May 03 $11 −$10 -85%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 02 $30 −$29 -98%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner May 02 $10 −$10 -97%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 1 Winner May 02 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 02 $47 −$3 -6%
LoL: Team WE vs JD Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 02 $35 +$34 +98%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 2? May 02 $8 −$8 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 2? May 02 $41 +$19 +46%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 01 $34 −$13 -38%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 01 $16 −$16 -98%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Invictus Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 01 $16 +$21 +129%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 22¢ $22 1h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $22 5h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 34¢ $15 7h
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff BUY FUT Esports 37¢ $6 18h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 34¢ $14 20h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY EDward Gaming 26¢ $5 39h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY KT Rolster 2¢ $5 46h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY KT Rolster 12¢ $10 2d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 27¢ $10 2d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 48¢ $20 2d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Team WE 8¢ $8 4d
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou SELL XLG Gaming 99¢ $9 4d
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou SELL XLG Gaming 69¢ $6 4d
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou BUY XLG Gaming 26¢ $5 4d
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner SELL XLG Gaming 99¢ $11 4d
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner BUY XLG Gaming 44¢ $5 4d
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage SELL FUT Esports 100¢ $42 4d
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage BUY FUT Esports 43¢ $18 4d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $51 5d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $51 5d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $103 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $1 5d
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou BUY FUT Esports 38¢ $71 6d
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou BUY FUT Esports 33¢ $2 6d
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 SELL MIBR 26¢ $2 6d
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY MIBR 64¢ $6 6d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $31 6d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL Bilibili Gaming 95¢ $19 6d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 26¢ $2 6d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 26¢ $3 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $316.93 · official $316.93 (match) · 392 history records