Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:16:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3A 0x3ac5…ef17 sports 161 markets active 2h ago coverage 167d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$13 (-0%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate8%12W / 148L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 28% −$4
other 22% −$4
politics 18% −$2
crypto 10% −$1
world 7% −$1
economics 6% −$1
culture 4% −$1
tech 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -3.3% -12.5% 0% 0% -11.6%
≤90d 3 -2.3% -11.6% 0% 0% -10.1%
all 160 -0.1% -9.6% 8% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

167d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses12 / 148
Open positions1
Markets (closed)160 / 161
History coverage167d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 160 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $49 $49 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will George Clooney be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee? Jun 08 $18 −$1 -6%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 26 $37 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $273 −$1 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Feb 19 $49 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 19 $85 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 19 $42 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 19 $45 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 19 $45 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 20, 2026 (ET)? Feb 19 $146 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 19 $105 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 19 $49 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 19 $48 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 6, 2026 (ET)? Feb 19 $44 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 19 $6 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 19 $93 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 19 $104 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 19 $159 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 19 $307 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 19 $206 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 19 $60 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 1, 2026 (ET)? Feb 19 $46 $0 +0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 19 $161 $0 -0%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 19 $200 $0 -0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? Feb 19 $50 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 19 $98 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Feb 18 $52 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 18 $55 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 18 $71 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in February? Feb 18 $50 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 22, 2026 (ET)? Feb 18 $18 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in February? Feb 18 $133 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Feb 18 $103 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? Feb 18 $51 $0 -0%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 18 $163 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February? Feb 18 $102 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 18 $81 $0 -0%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 15 $130 $0 -0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány? Feb 15 $11 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 15 $49 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 15 $105 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Feb 15 $103 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026? Feb 15 $92 $0 -0%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 15 $52 $0 -0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 15 $47 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 15 $50 $0 -0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? Feb 15 $50 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Feb 15 $75 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 15 $281 $0 -0%
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 15 $106 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 15 $111 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026 BUY No 96¢ $49 1h
Will George Clooney be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee? SELL No 91¢ $17 12d
Will George Clooney be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee? BUY No 96¢ $18 12d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 98¢ $37 25d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 98¢ $37 25d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 92¢ $49 33d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $50 36d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $49 121d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $49 121d
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $42 121d
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $42 121d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 90¢ $42 121d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 91¢ $42 121d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 91¢ $45 121d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 91¢ $45 121d
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the NBA Western Conference Finals? SELL No 96¢ $45 121d
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the NBA Western Conference Finals? BUY No 96¢ $45 121d
Will the US next strike Iran on February 20, 2026 (ET)? SELL No 96¢ $50 121d
Will the US next strike Iran on February 20, 2026 (ET)? BUY No 96¢ $50 121d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $47 121d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $47 121d
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 95¢ $49 121d
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 95¢ $49 121d
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 98¢ $48 121d
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 98¢ $48 121d
Will the US next strike Iran on March 6, 2026 (ET)? SELL No 98¢ $44 121d
Will the US next strike Iran on March 6, 2026 (ET)? BUY No 98¢ $44 121d
Will the Houston Rockets win the NBA Western Conference Finals? SELL No 93¢ $6 121d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 94¢ $46 121d
Will the Houston Rockets win the NBA Western Conference Finals? BUY No 93¢ $6 121d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.55 · official $48.55 (match) · 542 history records