Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T12:13:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3A 0x3ac4…2956 crypto 69 markets active 2h ago coverage 274d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$13 (-1%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate61%41W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$205now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days+$27
14 days+$12
30 days+$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 50% +$36
other 31% −$44
finance 14% +$27
tech 2% −$20
world 2% $0
sports 1% −$19
politics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-26.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +15.8% +4.8% 100% 100% +4.2%
≤30d 5 -9.4% -18.0% 80% 60% -3.3%
≤90d 17 -8.9% -17.5% 71% 41% -10.5%
all 67 -19.2% -26.9% 61% 33% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.9% 33% -10.4%
10% -33.9% 13% -19.0%
15% -40.2% 12% -26.8%
20% -46.1% 9% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$12 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

274d coverage
Net worth$205
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses41 / 26
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)67 / 69
History coverage274d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 67 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 64¢ 66¢ $147 $151 +$3 (+2%)
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $500 in June? No 94¢ 89¢ $57 $54 −$3 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? Jun 23 $49 +$8 +17%
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $560 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 18 $131 +$19 +14%
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $620 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $580 in May? May 30 $14 +$2 +14%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? May 29 $30 +$2 +7%
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $410 in May? May 24 $35 −$21 -59%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in April? May 10 $33 +$2 +6%
Will T-Mobile US (TMUS) beat quarterly earnings? Apr 29 $20 +$9 +43%
Will BW Industrial Holdings’ market cap be between $125M and $140M at Apr 29 $24 +$2 +10%
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $690 Week of April 13 2026 Apr 19 $10 $0 +5%
Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on April 17? Apr 17 $20 −$19 -97%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-15? Apr 16 $30 +$18 +60%
Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on April 13? Apr 13 $25 −$25 -99%
Will UK strike Iran by April 30? Apr 11 $50 $0 -1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? Apr 08 $79 +$2 +2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? Apr 01 $64 +$9 +14%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Mar 31 $5 +$1 +16%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $390 on March 13? Mar 14 $10 $0 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on March 13? Mar 13 $10 +$13 +129%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) finish week of March 16 above $390? Mar 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of March? Mar 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? Mar 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on March 12? Mar 12 $10 +$11 +106%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close at $400-$410 on the final day of trading o Mar 11 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on March 12? Mar 11 $8 −$8 -99%
Will Meta dip to $460 in December? Dec 23 $93 $0 +0%
Will Meta dip to $500 in December? Dec 22 $1 −$1 -65%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on December 20? Dec 21 $50 +$38 +75%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on December 20? Dec 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on December 20? Dec 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on December 20? Dec 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Solana be between $120 and $130 on December 19? Dec 20 $25 +$2 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on December 22? Dec 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on December 22? Dec 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on December 18? Dec 19 $50 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on December 18? Dec 19 $50 +$6 +12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on December 18? Dec 16 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on December 15? Dec 15 $20 +$2 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on December 15? Dec 15 $34 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on December 15? Dec 15 $54 +$2 +5%
Will Bitcoin dip to $88,000 December 8-14? Dec 14 $28 −$28 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $130 on December 13? Dec 14 $24 +$4 +18%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on December 12? Dec 13 $50 +$3 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on December 12? Dec 13 $50 +$5 +10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on December 12? Dec 09 $28 −$28 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on December 12? Dec 09 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $120 on December 9? Dec 09 $160 +$6 +4%
Will the price of Solana be above $140 on December 12? Dec 06 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on December 6? Dec 06 $43 +$14 +33%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on December 6? Dec 06 $102 +$7 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $500 in June? BUY No 94¢ $57 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? SELL No 99¢ $57 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $149 3d
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $560 Week of June 15 2026? BUY No 87¢ $131 7d
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $620 Week of June 15 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $15 7d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? BUY No 84¢ $49 12d
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $580 in May? BUY No 87¢ $14 30d
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $410 in May? SELL Yes 30¢ $15 30d
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $410 in May? BUY Yes 69¢ $35 43d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? BUY No 93¢ $30 54d
Will BW Industrial Holdings’ market cap be between $125M and $140M at SELL No 90¢ $2 54d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in April? BUY No 94¢ $33 60d
Will BW Industrial Holdings’ market cap be between $125M and $140M at SELL No 86¢ $25 60d
Will T-Mobile US (TMUS) beat quarterly earnings? BUY Yes 69¢ $20 64d
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $690 Week of April 13 2026 BUY Yes 20¢ $2 66d
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $690 Week of April 13 2026 BUY No 75¢ $8 67d
Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on April 17? BUY Up 15¢ $20 67d
Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on April 13? BUY Down 81¢ $25 71d
Will BW Industrial Holdings’ market cap be between $125M and $140M at BUY No 77¢ $24 72d
Will UK strike Iran by April 30? SELL No 96¢ $50 72d
Will UK strike Iran by April 30? BUY No 97¢ $50 75d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $30 75d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? SELL No 98¢ $80 75d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? BUY No 96¢ $73 83d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? BUY No 92¢ $6 83d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? BUY No 86¢ $11 101d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? BUY No 89¢ $23 101d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on March 13? SELL Yes 100¢ $23 101d
Will Microsoft (MSFT) finish week of March 16 above $390? BUY Yes 81¢ $7 102d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of March? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 102d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $204.57 · official $204.57 (match) · 138 history records