Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:37:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3A 0x3ac4…2529 weather 1122 markets active 1h ago coverage 80d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 80d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$586 (+1%) realized +$587 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate98%1084W / 27L
Drawdown25%max
Avg bet$68per market
Trades / day29.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$666now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$13
14 days−$48
30 days+$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$437
politics 0% −$3
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 -1.7% -11.0% 90% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 308 -0.3% -9.8% 96% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 1111 +0.4% -9.2% 98% 1% -9.0%
all 1111 +0.4% -9.2% 98% 1% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.2% 1% -9.0%
10% ← realistic here -17.9% 0% -17.7%
15% -25.8% 0% -25.7%
20% -33.1% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$12 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.32 per $1 lost it wins $2.32
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

80d coverage
Net worth$666
Realized+$587
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses1084 / 27
Open positions11
Markets (closed)1111 / 1122
History coverage80d ⚠
Avg bet$68
Trades / day29.5
Drawdown25%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 1111 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C or below on June 21? No 99¢ 100¢ $150 $150 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 94°F or higher on June 20? No 99¢ 99¢ $99 $99 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 20? No 99¢ 99¢ $90 $91 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 96°F or higher on June 20? No 98¢ 99¢ $83 $84 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 96°F or higher on June 20? No 99¢ 99¢ $60 $60 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on June 20? No 99¢ 99¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 84°F or higher on June 20? No 99¢ 100¢ $21 $21 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 19? No 99¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 50¢ 82¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+63%)
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 61°F or below on June 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+0%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 50¢ 18¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-63%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 20? Jun 19 $46 −$4 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on June 17? Jun 18 $150 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Jun Jun 18 $55 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 77°F or below on June 17? Jun 18 $62 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 18 $150 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on June 17? Jun 17 $50 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on June 16? Jun 17 $150 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 49°F or below on June Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 84°F or higher on June 16? Jun 17 $149 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 102°F or higher on June 15? Jun 16 $150 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 92°F or higher on June 15? Jun 16 $85 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 92°F or higher on June 15? Jun 16 $150 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 73°F or below on June 15? Jun 16 $38 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on Jun Jun 16 $150 +$2 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on Jun Jun 16 $150 +$3 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 55°F or below on June Jun 16 $150 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 14? Jun 15 $150 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 96°F or higher on June 14? Jun 15 $150 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 96-97°F on June 14? Jun 15 $98 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 81°F or below on June 14? Jun 15 $119 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Jun Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 63°F or below on June Jun 15 $94 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 14? Jun 14 $150 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 15? Jun 14 $167 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 86°F or higher on June 13? Jun 14 $150 +$8 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 100-101°F on June 13 Jun 14 $90 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Jun Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 70-71°F on June 13? Jun 14 $69 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Jun Jun 14 $18 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 100°F or higher on June 13? Jun 14 $150 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 14? Jun 13 $8 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju Jun 13 $15 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 13 $150 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on June 12? Jun 13 $150 +$3 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 68-69°F on June 12? Jun 13 $24 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on Jun Jun 13 $150 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 13 $150 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 88°F or higher on Jun Jun 13 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 12 $12 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 12 $50 −$48 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C or below on June 12? Jun 12 $150 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on June 11? Jun 12 $150 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 69°F or below on June 11? Jun 12 $31 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 88°F or higher on June 11? Jun 12 $24 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 96-97°F on Ju Jun 12 $149 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 12 $123 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 12 $150 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 86°F or higher on Jun Jun 12 $150 −$4 -3%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 70-71°F on June 11? Jun 12 $12 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 63°F or below on June Jun 12 $4 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $11 34m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $67 43m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $12 54m
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 20? SELL No 91¢ $43 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C or below on June 21? BUY No 99¢ $37 1h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $100 1h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $25 2h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C or below on June 21? BUY No 99¢ $113 3h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 96°F or higher on June 20? SELL No 98¢ $67 4h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 96°F or higher on June 20? BUY No 98¢ $19 4h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 96°F or higher on June 20? BUY No 98¢ $29 8h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $20 9h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 84°F or higher on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $21 10h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 96°F or higher on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $60 10h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 94°F or higher on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $99 10h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 20? BUY No 98¢ $23 11h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 20? BUY No 98¢ $23 12h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 96°F or higher on June 20? BUY No 98¢ $102 12h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 61°F or below on June BUY No 100¢ $6 21h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 61°F or below on June BUY No 100¢ $0 26h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 61°F or below on June BUY No 100¢ $0 26h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju BUY No 99¢ $104 2d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju BUY No 99¢ $46 2d
Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $50 2d
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Jun BUY Yes 99¢ $55 2d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $150 2d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 84°F or higher on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $149 3d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 77°F or below on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $62 3d
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 49°F or below on June BUY No 100¢ $5 3d
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 49°F or below on June BUY No 100¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $665.65 · official $665.65 (match) · 3500 history records