Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T13:05:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3A 0x3ac3…7d1d crypto 314 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (129 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$785 (-6%) realized −$837 · open +$52
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate48%148W / 162L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day129.5pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$84now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,354
other 0% −$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (129 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-26.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 310 -18.6% -26.3% 48% 42% -19.7%
≤30d 310 -18.6% -26.3% 48% 42% -19.7%
≤90d 310 -18.6% -26.3% 48% 42% -19.7%
all 310 -18.6% -26.3% 48% 42% -19.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover129.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -26.3% 42% -19.7%
10% ← realistic here -33.4% 34% -27.4%
15% -39.8% 27% -34.4%
20% -45.7% 20% -40.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$31 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$84
Realized−$837
Unrealized+$52
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses148 / 162
Open positions4
Markets (closed)310 / 314
History coverage5d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day129.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 310 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Down 59¢ 98¢ $24 $40 +$16 (+66%)
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Up 0¢ 48¢ $0 $24 +$24 (+0%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Up 0¢ 50¢ $0 $20 +$20 (+0%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Down 8¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 126 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 20 $11 +$4 +36%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 20 $20 +$34 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 20 $21 +$3 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 20 $27 −$27 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 20 $28 −$27 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 20 $28 −$27 -95%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 20 $29 −$29 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 20 $21 +$15 +73%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 20 $29 +$13 +44%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 20 $31 +$9 +27%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 20 $23 −$22 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 20 $24 +$2 +9%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 20 $31 +$5 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 20 $31 +$2 +5%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 20 $27 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 20 $33 −$33 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 20 $26 +$9 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 20 $32 −$30 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$4 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 20 $21 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 20 $37 +$30 +83%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 20 $31 +$19 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 20 $36 −$34 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 20 $30 +$14 +46%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 20 $33 −$32 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 20 $35 +$10 +28%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 20 $35 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 20 $35 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 20 $56 +$32 +58%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 20 $57 −$54 -95%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 20 $56 −$54 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 20 $56 −$54 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 20 $56 −$54 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 20 $51 +$25 +49%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 20 $45 +$18 +40%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 20 $6 +$4 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 20 $32 −$31 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 20 $4 +$6 +129%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 20 $6 +$3 +50%
BNB Up or Down - June 19, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -99%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 19 $6 +$3 +43%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 19 $6 −$6 -94%
BNB Up or Down - June 19, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 19 $6 −$6 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $23 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $22 0m
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $25 2m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $9 7m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $3 36m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $8 43m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $11 44m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $11 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $24 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $21 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $28 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $28 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $27 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET SELL Down 73¢ $36 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET SELL Down 76¢ $40 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $21 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $23 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $29 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $27 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET SELL Up 88¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $24 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $31 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $31 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $35 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $32 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $14 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $21 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $83.98 · official $67.37 · 792 history records