trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? | Yes | 59¢ | 58¢ | $120 | $119 | −$1 (-1%) |
| Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? | Yes | 84¢ | 94¢ | $50 | $56 | +$6 (+11%) |
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? | Yes | 26¢ | 26¢ | $20 | $20 | −$0 (-2%) |
| Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 5¢ | 5¢ | $10 | $11 | +$1 (+7%) |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 16¢ | 16¢ | $10 | $10 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? | Yes | 21¢ | 0¢ | $50 | $0 | −$50 (-100%) |
| Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake Paul? | Yes | 32¢ | 0¢ | $199 | $0 | −$199 (-100%) |
| US government shutdown Saturday? | No | 20¢ | 0¢ | $20 | $0 | −$20 (-100%) |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 3AM ET | Up | 27¢ | 0¢ | $10 | $0 | −$10 (-100%) |
| Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of January? | Yes | 59¢ | 0¢ | $30 | $0 | −$30 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 12 | $10 | +$17 | +165% |
| Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 11 | $80 | +$13 | +16% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 3AM ET | Feb 11 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of January? | Jan 29 | $30 | −$30 | -100% |
| US government shutdown Saturday? | Jan 27 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? | Jan 12 | $50 | −$50 | -100% |
| UFC 322: Haddon vs. Wellmaker (Bantamweight, Prelims) | Jan 07 | $200 | $0 | +0% |
| LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) | Nov 16 | $220 | +$124 | +56% |
| Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake Paul? | Nov 16 | $199 | −$199 | -100% |
| Bitcoin above $70,000 on November 8? | Nov 11 | $1,000 | +$53 | +5% |
| Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Nov 07 | $2,112 | +$832 | +39% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | +90.5% | +72.4% | 100% | 100% | +20.0% |
| ≤30d | 2 | +90.5% | +72.4% | 100% | 100% | +20.0% |
| ≤90d | 2 | +90.5% | +72.4% | 100% | 100% | +20.0% |
| all | 11 | -19.8% | -27.5% | 45% | 36% | +7.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -27.5% | 36% | +7.2% |
| 10% | -34.4% | 27% | -3.0% |
| 15% | -40.7% | 27% | -12.4% |
| 20% | -46.5% | 18% | -21.0% |