Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T21:13:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3A 0x3abf…77f0 crypto 306 markets active 1h ago coverage 102d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$1,794 (+26%) realized +$1,785 · open +$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate30%88W / 204L
Drawdown51%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$51now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,229
7 days−$740
14 days−$531
30 days−$531
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 76% +$1,086
other 15% +$601
sports 6% +$14
world 2% −$62
economics 0% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)+8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 110 -33.1% -39.5% 14% 13% -35.9%
≤30d 132 -11.8% -20.2% 17% 16% -26.9%
≤90d 165 +0.8% -8.8% 22% 21% -11.4%
all 292 +19.5% +8.2% 30% 29% +12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.2% 29% +12.7%
10% -2.2% 28% +1.9%
15% -11.6% 28% -7.9%
20% -20.3% 28% -17.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +55% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$63 vs −$19 · ×3.27 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.41 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$51
Realized+$1,785
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses88 / 204
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions2
Markets (closed)292 / 306
History coverage102d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown51%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 292 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score in First Half Yes 16¢ 16¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals Yes 8¢ 14¢ $12 $22 +$10 (+81%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 52 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 3 France? Jun 26 $10 +$1 +5%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 2 Sweden? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals Jun 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 26 $8 −$8 -100%
Jamal Musiala: 1+ goals Jun 26 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 26 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 26 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 26 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 26 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 26 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 26 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 26 $21 −$21 -100%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 18, 2026? Jun 26 $6 −$6 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 26 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 26 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 26 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 26 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 26 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 26 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 26 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Bruno Fernandes: 2+ goals Jun 26 $15 −$15 -100%
Exact Score: Scotland 2 - 3 Brazil? Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Club Atlético de Madrid 0 - 3 FC Barcelona? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 26 $50 −$50 -100%
Romelu Lukaku: 2+ goals Jun 26 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Austria? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Australia? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 26 $44 −$44 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 26 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 26 $40 −$40 -100%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026? Jun 26 $35 −$26 -73%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 26 $15 −$12 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 26 $50 −$50 -100%
Kai Havertz: 2+ goals Jun 26 $31 −$31 -100%
Kai Havertz: 3+ goals Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 26 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 26 $26 −$17 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 26 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 26 $29 −$29 -100%
Kai Havertz: 3+ goals Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Ghana? Jun 26 $15 −$7 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 26 $68 −$68 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals BUY Yes 8¢ $12 1h
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 3 France? SELL Yes 6¢ $11 1h
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 15¢ $10 1h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL Yes 100¢ $111 1h
Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $250 1h
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $151 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $16 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $8 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $21 7h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 27¢ $31 7h
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 16¢ $21 7h
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 3 France? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 7h
Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ goals BUY Yes 8¢ $21 7h
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 33¢ $51 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $11 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Up 36¢ $4 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 23h
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals BUY Yes 34¢ $15 31h
Kai Havertz: 3+ goals BUY Yes 2¢ $5 31h
Kai Havertz: 2+ goals BUY Yes 9¢ $18 31h
Exact Score: Japan 3 - 2 Sweden? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 31h
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 22¢ $39 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $10 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $19 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $10 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51.46 · official $51.46 (match) · 783 history records