Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:29:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3A 0x3abd…a3d0 sports 1071 markets active 2h ago coverage 24d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (100 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$139 (+6%) realized +$49 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate58%592W / 432L
Drawdown67%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day99.8pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$102now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$19
14 days−$22
30 days+$49
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 42% −$46
other 37% +$40
crypto 19% +$59
world 1% −$12
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (100 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 185 -8.9% -17.6% 56% 46% -13.2%
≤30d 1024 -0.6% -10.1% 58% 48% -7.6%
≤90d 1024 -0.6% -10.1% 58% 48% -7.6%
all 1024 -0.6% -10.1% 58% 48% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover99.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.1% 48% -7.6%
10% ← realistic here -18.7% 40% -16.5%
15% -26.6% 33% -24.5%
20% -33.8% 25% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$102
Realized+$49
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses592 / 432
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions47
Markets (closed)1024 / 1071
History coverage24d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day99.8
Drawdown67%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 47 History 1024 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? No 36¢ 38¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+6%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? No 80¢ 82¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? No 41¢ 46¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+11%)
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? No 88¢ 88¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? No 96¢ 96¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? No 34¢ 34¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? No 91¢ 90¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? No 80¢ 99¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+24%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? No 93¢ 96¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+3%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? No 95¢ 94¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? No 84¢ 84¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? No 82¢ 81¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? No 80¢ 80¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? No 80¢ 78¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? No 24¢ 24¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Over 44¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+127%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Yes 33¢ 34¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score No 66¢ 66¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Under 50¢ 50¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? No 44¢ 44¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? No 79¢ 78¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? No 30¢ 30¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Tunisia 75¢ 28¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-62%)
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Over 71¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+41%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 −$3 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +47%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) Jun 15 $3 $0 +8%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 15 $4 +$1 +16%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $2 +$3 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$5 +128%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +90%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$2 +34%
Will Málaga CF vs. UD Almería end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Cuiabá EC vs. Vila Nova FC end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 14 $4 $0 +9%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 −$1 -31%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +2%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +20%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $2 +$5 +221%
Will São Bernardo FC vs. SC Recife end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $5 −$4 -72%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $4 +$1 +36%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +50%
Spread: Haiti (-1.5) Jun 14 $1 $0 +5%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $4 +$2 +56%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $4 +$2 +57%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 +$4 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 +$9 +286%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $3 +$1 +44%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +6%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $1 +$2 +152%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Tunisia 75¢ $1 1h
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Tunisia 75¢ $1 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $1 1h
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Tunisia 75¢ $1 1h
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Tunisia 75¢ $1 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $1 1h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY No 88¢ $1 1h
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Tunisia 74¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 1h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY No 88¢ $1 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 93¢ $1 1h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 1h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 80¢ $1 1h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 80¢ $1 1h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 80¢ $1 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 2h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 30¢ $1 2h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY No 88¢ $1 2h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 44¢ $1 2h
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 24¢ $1 2h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $1 2h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $1 2h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 80¢ $1 2h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $1 2h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY No 88¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $101.63 · official $100.81 (match) · 3500 history records