Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:17:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
3A 0x3ab5…a5b0 sports 34 markets active 0h ago coverage 582d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$132 (+18%) realized +$132 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate53%17W / 15L
Drawdown75%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$91now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$119
7 days+$174
14 days+$174
30 days+$174
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% +$98
other 16% +$58
politics 12% −$2
crypto 3% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +20.2% +8.7% 67% 67% +33.2%
≤30d 12 +20.2% +8.7% 67% 67% +33.2%
≤90d 24 -32.2% -38.7% 38% 38% +6.4%
all 32 -8.0% -16.8% 53% 53% +12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.8% 53% +12.5%
10% -24.7% 50% +1.7%
15% -32.0% 41% -8.1%
20% -38.7% 34% -17.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +24% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$12 · ×1.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.91 per $1 lost it wins $1.91
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

582d coverage
Net worth$91
Realized+$132
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses17 / 15
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)32 / 34
History coverage582d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown75%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Over 50¢ 52¢ $67 $70 +$3 (+5%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 29¢ 24¢ $24 $20 −$4 (-16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $85 +$83 +97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $49 +$36 +73%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 17 $35 −$35 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A Jun 17 $20 +$31 +152%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $11 +$6 +57%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $24 +$8 +34%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $91 +$31 +34%
Panthers vs. Canadiens Jun 14 $8 +$7 +85%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $25 +$27 +109%
Texas A&M vs. Arkansas Apr 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Utah vs. BYU Apr 07 $9 −$9 -100%
Wild vs. Stars Apr 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Senators vs. Lightning Apr 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake Paul? Apr 07 $7 −$7 -100%
Florida Gators vs. Texas A&M Apr 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Tigers vs. Mariners Apr 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Stars vs. Jets Apr 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Blackhawks vs. Bruins Apr 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Mississippi State vs. Florida Gators Apr 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Andrew Cuomo gets the most first-choice votes in the 2025 New York Cit Apr 07 $41 −$41 -100%
Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today? Apr 07 $47 +$39 +84%
Indiana vs. Maryland Terrapins Nov 02 $15 +$2 +11%
Georgia vs. Florida Gators Nov 02 $25 +$12 +49%
Ole Miss vs. Georgia Nov 01 $25 +$15 +59%
South Florida vs. North Texas Oct 11 $6 +$7 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Oct 10 $20 +$5 +24%
East Carolina vs. Tulane Oct 10 $10 +$4 +45%
Ducks vs. Kraken Oct 10 $10 +$9 +85%
Canadiens vs. Red Wings Oct 10 $10 +$13 +127%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 29¢ $25 5m
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 50¢ $68 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 50¢ $85 5h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $49 34h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 3d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 3d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $10 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $11 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A BUY 39¢ $20 4d
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) BUY New Zealand 74¢ $24 4d
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 74¢ $91 6d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $25 7d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 60¢ $35 7d
Panthers vs. Canadiens BUY Canadiens 54¢ $8 73d
Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today? SELL Yes 95¢ $86 73d
Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today? BUY Yes 59¢ $1 74d
Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today? BUY Yes 59¢ $1 74d
Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today? BUY Yes 59¢ $1 74d
Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today? BUY Yes 59¢ $4 74d
Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today? BUY Yes 59¢ $0 74d
Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today? BUY Yes 59¢ $7 74d
Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today? BUY Yes 59¢ $14 74d
Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today? BUY Yes 59¢ $1 74d
Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today? BUY Yes 59¢ $3 74d
Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today? BUY Yes 40¢ $14 74d
Indiana vs. Maryland Terrapins SELL Indiana 100¢ $17 230d
Georgia vs. Florida Gators SELL Georgia 100¢ $37 230d
Indiana vs. Maryland Terrapins BUY Indiana 90¢ $15 231d
Georgia vs. Florida Gators BUY Georgia 67¢ $25 231d
Mississippi State vs. Florida Gators BUY Mississippi State 37¢ $10 245d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $90.70 · official $102.26 · 72 history records