Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:07:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3A 0x3ab5…8a41 weather 618 markets active 1h ago coverage 176d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$319 (-1%) realized −$322 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate62%381W / 234L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$65per market
Trades / day6.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$303now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$20
14 days−$11
30 days−$49
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 82% −$300
crypto 9% −$81
other 6% −$26
world 1% +$2
sports 1% +$8
tech 0% +$2
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -12.4% -20.7% 62% 38% -16.5%
≤30d 130 -3.1% -12.3% 84% 13% -9.8%
≤90d 251 -0.6% -10.1% 79% 12% -10.4%
all 615 +0.7% -8.9% 62% 26% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 26% -10.4%
10% -17.6% 22% -19.0%
15% -25.6% 19% -26.8%
20% -32.9% 17% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$9 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

176d coverage
Net worth$303
Realized−$322
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses381 / 234
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)615 / 618
History coverage176d
Avg bet$65
Trades / day6.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 615 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 20? No 98¢ 100¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 20? Yes 98¢ 100¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 20? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 19? Jun 19 $37 −$11 -30%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $13 +$12 +90%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 16? Jun 16 $145 +$6 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $20 +$2 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 16? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 $0 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 13? Jun 13 $12 +$1 +8%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 $0 +29%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $50 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $50 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $7 −$5 -78%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 +$1 +70%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 +$2 +212%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 10? Jun 10 $100 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 10? Jun 10 $11 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 9? Jun 10 $110 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -90%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 07 $9 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 6? Jun 06 $15 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 6? Jun 06 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 6? Jun 06 $412 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 5? Jun 05 $203 +$5 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 5? Jun 05 $55 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 5? Jun 05 $50 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 5? Jun 05 $96 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju Jun 05 $200 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 5? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 5? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 4? Jun 04 $160 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C or higher on June 4? Jun 04 $140 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 4? Jun 04 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 4? Jun 04 $134 −$134 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 4? Jun 04 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 4? Jun 04 $8 −$2 -26%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $6 $0 +3%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on June 3? Jun 04 $20 −$15 -75%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 3? Jun 03 $9 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 3? Jun 03 $10 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 3? Jun 03 $50 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 3? Jun 03 $515 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 68°F or higher on Jun Jun 03 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 2? Jun 03 $182 +$4 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 2? Jun 02 $373 +$7 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C or below on June 2? Jun 02 $395 +$5 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C or higher on June 2? Jun 02 $150 +$4 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 20? BUY No 98¢ $100 1h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 20? BUY Yes 98¢ $100 4h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 19? BUY Yes 79¢ $4 28h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 19? BUY Yes 79¢ $12 28h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 19? SELL No 27¢ $6 29h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 19? BUY No 91¢ $21 29h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 52¢ $13 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 18? BUY Yes 41¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 16? BUY Yes 96¢ $145 4d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 89¢ $20 4d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 16? BUY Yes 81¢ $20 4d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 13? BUY Yes 92¢ $12 7d
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $100 7d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 85¢ $1 7d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 77¢ $1 7d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 81¢ $1 7d
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C or higher on June 12? SELL Yes 18¢ $1 7d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? BUY Yes 99¢ $50 8d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 12? BUY No 98¢ $50 8d
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C or higher on June 12? BUY Yes 79¢ $7 8d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 11? SELL Yes 66¢ $4 9d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 11? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 9d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 11? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 9d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 11? BUY No 95¢ $10 9d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 10? SELL No 100¢ $28 10d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 10? SELL No 100¢ $74 10d
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 10? SELL No 95¢ $11 10d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 10? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 10d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 10? BUY No 98¢ $100 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $303.32 · official $303.32 (match) · 1522 history records