Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T15:41:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
3A 0x3ab5…e56f sports 486 markets active 2h ago coverage 162d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 162d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$63,055 (+4%) realized +$63,532 · open −$477
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate37%171W / 296L
Whale WR54%big bets
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$2,917per market
Trades / day20.1pace
Fees−$810est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$909now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 162d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 48% +$27,749
politics 20% +$67,705
economics 14% +$2,050
other 9% +$1,305
sports 4% +$16,065
crypto 2% +$1,645
culture 2% +$2,271
finance 1% +$61
tech 1% −$622
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)+3.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +115.3% +94.8% 68% 58% +3.4%
≤30d 115 +21.6% +10.0% 33% 25% -6.6%
≤90d 325 +2.2% -7.5% 29% 20% -6.2%
all 467 +14.6% +3.7% 37% 25% -1.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.1 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +3.7% 25% -1.9%
10% -6.3% 22% -11.3%
15% ← realistic here -15.3% 20% -19.8%
20% -23.6% 18% -27.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 54% (≥$1,000) neutral
Persistence
early +20% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,111 vs −$242 · ×4.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.66 per $1 lost it wins $2.66
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

162d coverage
Net worth$909
Realized+$63,532
Unrealized−$477
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses171 / 296
Whale WR (big bets)54%
Est. fees paid−$810
Open positions13
Markets (closed)467 / 486
History coverage162d ⚠
Avg bet$2,917
Trades / day20.1
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 467 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 52¢ 57¢ $348 $385 +$37 (+11%)
Will Pump.fun dip to $0.0010 by December 31, 2026? Yes 68¢ 62¢ $168 $153 −$15 (-9%)
Will Brad Lander win the NY-10 Democratic Primary by less than 10%? Yes 0¢ 12¢ $4 $131 +$127 (+2825%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 25? No 1¢ 1¢ $154 $92 −$61 (-40%)
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $40 $47 +$7 (+16%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 June 22-28? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $20 $34 +$14 (+72%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 25? No 0¢ 0¢ $131 $26 −$105 (-80%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 25? No 0¢ 0¢ $22 $11 −$11 (-50%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 25? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $202 $11 −$191 (-95%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 25? No 0¢ 0¢ $21 $7 −$15 (-68%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 25? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $21 $6 −$15 (-72%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 25? No 0¢ 0¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-75%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 25? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $242 $2 −$240 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 89 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $846 +$9,338 +1104%
Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting? Jun 25 $4,047 −$48 -1%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 25 $5 +$4 +85%
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 22-28? Jun 24 $21 +$103 +484%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $184 Week of June 22 2026? Jun 24 $52 +$23 +44%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $192 Week of June 22 2026? Jun 24 $59 +$47 +80%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $121 −$120 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $43 −$40 -93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $21 −$20 -93%
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Jun 24 $103 −$14 -13%
Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12? Jun 23 $2,010 +$215 +11%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $200 Week of June 22 2026? Jun 23 $64 +$44 +68%
Spread: France (-1.5) AND Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Nor Jun 23 $103 +$498 +486%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 22 $21,450 +$2,310 +11%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner Jun 21 $93 +$75 +80%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $202 +$120 +59%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round Jun 21 $102 −$10 -10%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 20 $40,842 +$559 +1%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 19 $24,834 +$520 +2%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $176 −$32 -18%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $203 −$200 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $102 +$98 +97%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $400 +$10 +2%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $305 −$205 -67%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $1,505 +$82 +6%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $306 +$501 +164%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $313 −$310 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $511 −$500 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $423 −$420 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $199 −$195 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $514 −$500 -97%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $345 −$339 -98%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $6 −$6 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $711 +$3,778 +531%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $52 −$51 -97%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $102 −$100 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $332 +$910 +274%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $66 −$65 -97%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $103 −$100 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $409 −$248 -60%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 11 $5,617 −$630 -11%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 12? Jun 10 $538 −$508 -94%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $104 −$35 -34%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 13? Jun 10 $51 −$49 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 13? Jun 10 $48 −$45 -94%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 09 $1,000 −$21 -2%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $204 −$200 -98%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 8? Jun 08 $96 −$15 -15%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $102 +$193 +188%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 25? SELL No 80¢ $164 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 25? SELL No 80¢ $330 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 25? SELL No 80¢ $5,048 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 25? SELL No 80¢ $330 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 25? SELL No 80¢ $331 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 25? SELL No 80¢ $339 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 25? SELL No 80¢ $11 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 25? SELL No 80¢ $192 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 25? SELL No 40¢ $1,677 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 25? SELL No 40¢ $82 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 25? SELL No 40¢ $35 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 25? SELL No 40¢ $95 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 25? SELL No 20¢ $197 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 25? SELL No 20¢ $86 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 25? SELL No 20¢ $60 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 25? SELL No 20¢ $86 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 25? SELL No 20¢ $76 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 25? SELL No 20¢ $212 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 25? SELL No 20¢ $60 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 25? SELL No 20¢ $0 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 25? SELL No 20¢ $60 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 25? SELL No 20¢ $60 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 25? SELL No 20¢ $60 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 25? SELL No 20¢ $5 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 25? SELL No 20¢ $62 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 25? SELL No 20¢ $1 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 25? SELL No 20¢ $220 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 25? SELL No 20¢ $5 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 25? SELL No 71¢ $1,948 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 25? SELL No 27¢ $49 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $908.60 · official $908.60 (match) · 3500 history records