Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T19:44:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3A 0x3ab4…468b world 28 markets active 2h ago coverage 471d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate52%14W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 73% −$2
other 18% $0
politics 4% $0
weather 3% +$1
crypto 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +0.2% -9.4% 44% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 11 -1.7% -11.1% 36% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 14 -1.3% -10.7% 36% 0% -9.7%
all 27 +1.5% -8.2% 52% 4% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 4% -9.5%
10% -16.9% 4% -18.2%
15% -25.0% 4% -26.1%
20% -32.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 46% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

471d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses14 / 13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)27 / 28
History coverage471d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 67¢ 46¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 24 $73 $0 +0%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 23 $22 +$1 +3%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 23 $50 $0 -0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $58 −$1 -2%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $58 −$1 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 21 $11 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $43 $0 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $53 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $43 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 27 $5 $0 -2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $10 −$2 -18%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 25 $58 +$2 +4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $54 −$2 -3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 22 $57 $0 +0%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran before July? Dec 14 $1 $0 +3%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2025 French Open? Jun 06 $2 $0 +5%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elec Jun 05 $2 +$1 +43%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 25 $2 $0 +1%
Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people? Apr 03 $15 $0 +0%
Will Victor Ponta win the Romanian presidential election? Apr 02 $15 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 49-50°F on March 28? Mar 29 $15 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 60-61°F on March 25? Mar 27 $14 +$1 +4%
Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? Mar 25 $15 −$1 -4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by March 31? Mar 19 $14 $0 +3%
Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 16 $14 $0 +0%
Duterte released from custody by Friday? Mar 16 $14 $0 +0%
Will Club Brugge or Aston Villa advance in the UCL Round of 16? Mar 13 $13 +$1 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $38 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $32 4h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $6 4h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $23 21h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $15 23h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $7 23h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 32¢ $12 28h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 32¢ $38 28h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 32¢ $50 28h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 53¢ $57 32h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 54¢ $58 33h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $58 39h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $58 41h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $10 4d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $11 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $44 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $43 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $20 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $16 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $4 6d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $33 6d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $12 6d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $3 6d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $38 6d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $53 6d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $5 6d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $38 6d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $26 6d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $17 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.28 · official $0.00 (match) · 93 history records