Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:07:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
3A 0x3ab3…9cd6 weather 224 markets active 2h ago coverage 303d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$261 (+3%) realized +$258 · open +$3
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate73%162W / 60L
Drawdown82%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$130now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days−$13
14 days+$2
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 25% +$125
world 19% +$33
sports 18% +$36
crypto 14% −$81
politics 13% +$81
weather 7% +$14
finance 2% +$4
tech 2% +$12
economics 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -7.5% -16.3% 67% 8% -11.4%
≤30d 30 -3.9% -13.0% 73% 30% -10.5%
≤90d 181 -2.4% -11.7% 70% 35% -7.1%
all 222 +1.1% -8.5% 73% 38% -6.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 38% -6.9%
10% -17.2% 21% -15.8%
15% -25.2% 15% -23.9%
20% -32.6% 10% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$7 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.51 per $1 lost it wins $1.51
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

303d coverage
Net worth$130
Realized+$258
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses162 / 60
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions2
Markets (closed)222 / 224
History coverage303d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown82%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 222 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 90¢ 90¢ $68 $68 +$0 (+1%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 90¢ 94¢ $60 $62 +$2 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $47 +$4 +9%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $102 +$5 +5%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Peru Presidential Election Invalidated? Jun 17 $43 −$1 -2%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $78 −$2 -2%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $75 +$3 +4%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $46 +$3 +6%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $67 +$2 +2%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $27 +$1 +5%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $35 +$4 +13%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $40 −$13 -33%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 13 $33 +$1 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $29 +$3 +11%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $40 +$6 +15%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $22 +$2 +11%
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A Jun 07 $40 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 07 $22 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $58 +$3 +6%
Will Park Soo-hyun win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial Jun 04 $18 +$2 +8%
Will Chun Jae-soo win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election? Jun 04 $15 +$3 +17%
Will Choo Kyung-ho win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 04 $15 +$2 +12%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $3 +$1 +31%
LoL: Supernova vs Winthrop University (BO5) - North American Challenge May 27 $6 −$6 -99%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Nemiga (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Fin May 27 $4 +$2 +50%
Counter-Strike: Leo Team vs HAVU (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Group Sta May 27 $2 +$1 +67%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $2 $0 +10%
Hamburg European Open: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli May 21 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Dakarai Larriett be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Alabama? May 21 $5 $0 -4%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 21? May 21 $10 −$7 -65%
Istanbul: Alafia Ayeni vs Franco Agamenone May 21 $4 $0 +6%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? May 14 $43 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 14 $60 $0 -0%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 14 $68 −$1 -2%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? May 14 $78 −$1 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 14 $100 −$32 -31%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026? May 14 $100 +$10 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 12 $63 +$4 +6%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.7% in April? May 12 $50 +$3 +7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? May 12 $100 +$8 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026? May 11 $54 +$9 +17%
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting occur after May 10? May 10 $40 +$3 +8%
Will David Farley win the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Au May 09 $100 +$12 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 08 $54 +$8 +16%
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking have the best AI model on May 8, 2026? May 08 $50 +$5 +11%
Will Amanda De Ryk win the 2026 London Borough of Lewisham mayoral ele May 08 $35 +$7 +20%
Will Peter Underwood win the 2026 London Borough of Croydon mayoral el May 08 $49 +$6 +13%
Will Zoë Garbett win the 2026 London Borough of Hackney mayoral electi May 08 $88 +$6 +7%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026? May 06 $50 +$4 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026? May 05 $55 +$20 +36%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $725 on May 1? May 01 $100 +$5 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 90¢ $68 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 93¢ $51 15h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $60 16h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 85¢ $47 16h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 97¢ $107 17h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 92¢ $60 17h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $20 17h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? SELL Yes 86¢ $80 17h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 92¢ $42 18h
Peru Presidential Election Invalidated? SELL No 95¢ $42 18h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 81¢ $76 43h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 95¢ $76 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 97¢ $78 3d
Peru Presidential Election Invalidated? BUY No 97¢ $43 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 96¢ $75 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $46 4d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 98¢ $67 4d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 99¢ $28 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 93¢ $39 4d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 94¢ $27 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 63¢ $27 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $35 5d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 98¢ $34 5d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 94¢ $33 8d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $29 10d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $40 10d
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? BUY Yes 87¢ $40 10d
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A SELL Yes 97¢ $40 10d
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? BUY No 90¢ $22 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $22 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $130.21 · official $130.21 (match) · 476 history records