Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:09:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
3A 0x3aae…b7d0 sports 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$494 (+11%) realized +$494 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR86%break-even
Win rate86%6W / 1L
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$361per market
Trades / day26.0pace
Fees−$39est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$700now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% +$1,136
other 50% +$243
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +86%
net ROI/market (all)+4.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +15.1% +4.2% 86% 86% +24.8%
≤30d 7 +15.1% +4.2% 86% 86% +24.8%
≤90d 7 +15.1% +4.2% 86% 86% +24.8%
all 7 +15.1% +4.2% 86% 86% +24.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +4.2% 86% +24.8%
10% -5.8% 43% +12.9%
15% ← realistic here -14.9% 43% +2.0%
20% -23.3% 14% -8.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 85% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +38% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +38% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$238 vs −$50 · ×4.76 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×28.57 per $1 lost it wins $28.57
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$700
Realized+$494
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses6 / 1
Est. fees paid−$39
Open positions5
Markets (closed)7 / 12
History coverage1d
Avg bet$361
Trades / day26.0
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $300 $298 −$2 (-1%)
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Over 69¢ 70¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Spain 72¢ 74¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Japan (-2.5) Jun 21 $1,370 +$920 +67%
Spread: Japan (-3.5) Jun 21 $35 +$7 +19%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $304 +$124 +41%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1,610 +$296 +18%
Japan to score first vs. Tunisia? Jun 21 $141 +$56 +40%
Spread: Ecuador (-3.5) Jun 21 $119 +$25 +21%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $50 −$50 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 61¢ $101 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $303 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 69¢ $101 1h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 72¢ $101 1h
Spread: Japan (-2.5) SELL Japan 87¢ $2,179 1h
Spread: Japan (-2.5) SELL Japan 85¢ $110 1h
Spread: Japan (-3.5) SELL Japan 31¢ $41 1h
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Japan 53¢ $913 2h
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Japan 52¢ $406 2h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) SELL Japan 84¢ $428 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 97¢ $913 2h
Spread: Japan (-3.5) BUY Japan 25¢ $35 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 85¢ $804 2h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 57¢ $5 2h
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Japan 29¢ $51 2h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 58¢ $101 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 85¢ $994 2h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 59¢ $197 2h
Japan to score first vs. Tunisia? SELL Yes 100¢ $197 2h
Japan to score first vs. Tunisia? BUY Yes 71¢ $141 5h
Spread: Ecuador (-3.5) SELL Curaçao 100¢ $144 5h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $806 6h
Spread: Ecuador (-3.5) BUY Curaçao 82¢ $100 6h
Spread: Ecuador (-3.5) BUY Curaçao 82¢ $19 7h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 84¢ $50 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $700.49 · official $700.49 (match) · 26 history records