Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:45:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3A 0x3aad…226d crypto 264 markets active 7d ago coverage 14d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 14d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (231 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$724 (+6%) realized +$724 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -65% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -73% what you keep after slip
Net edge-73%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate17%120W / 596L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day230.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 14d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$749
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (231 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-68.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 545 -89.6% -90.6% 4% 1% -56.2%
≤30d 716 -64.6% -68.0% 17% 12% -40.6%
≤90d 716 -64.6% -68.0% 17% 12% -40.6%
all 716 -64.6% -68.0% 17% 12% -40.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover230.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -68.0% 12% -40.6%
10% ← realistic here -71.0% 9% -46.3%
15% -73.8% 7% -51.5%
20% -76.4% 5% -56.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -37% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -65% · $-wt -37% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -30% → late -99% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
12.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$12 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$724
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses120 / 596
Open positions0
Markets (closed)716 / 264
History coverage14d ⚠
Avg bet$46
Trades / day230.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 716 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $16 −$12 -75%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 18, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 17 $55 −$46 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 17 $17 −$8 -48%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $19 −$19 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$3 -172%
Solana Up or Down - May 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 17, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 7, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 26, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 23, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 17 $14 −$16 -112%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 22, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 26, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 26, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 26, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 17 $22 −$22 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $11 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $8 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records