Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T22:59:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3A 0x3aac…b7e1 other 32 markets active 1h ago coverage 592d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,438 (-13%) realized −$1,438 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate34%11W / 21L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$359per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$38est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$49
7 days+$49
14 days+$49
30 days+$49
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 39% −$855
other 32% +$421
sports 19% −$490
world 6% −$288
economics 2% −$158
politics 1% −$85
finance 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-37.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +75.8% +59.1% 100% 100% +59.1%
≤30d 1 +75.8% +59.1% 100% 100% +59.1%
≤90d 11 -9.2% -17.8% 64% 18% -21.6%
all 32 -31.0% -37.6% 34% 19% -21.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.6% 19% -21.0%
10% -43.5% 19% -28.5%
15% -49.0% 16% -35.4%
20% -54.0% 16% -41.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$827) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -45% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$113 vs −$128 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

592d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,438
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses11 / 21
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$38
Open positions0
Markets (closed)32 / 32
History coverage592d
Avg bet$359
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 32 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $65 +$49 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Apr 17 $918 −$917 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Apr 17 $909 +$9 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Apr 17 $893 +$17 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Apr 17 $859 +$33 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Apr 16 $843 +$16 +2%
BMW Open: Alexander Zverev vs Gabriel Diallo Apr 16 $827 +$16 +2%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-15? Apr 16 $527 +$300 +57%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? Apr 15 $1,295 −$153 -12%
Will Liverpool FC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw? Apr 14 $1,154 −$377 -33%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 08 $116 −$114 -98%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-10? Mar 10 $200 −$200 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-03-10? Mar 10 $461 +$234 +51%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Feb 28 $106 +$60 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Feb 28 $13 −$13 -98%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? Feb 28 $76 −$62 -82%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-02-28? Feb 28 $176 −$100 -57%
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31? Jan 11 $290 −$290 -100%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 6? Jan 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München: Both Teams to Score Jan 09 $60 −$60 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2025-11-26? Jan 09 $62 −$62 -100%
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting? Jan 09 $155 −$155 -100%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 5? Nov 05 $78 −$58 -74%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2025-11-04? Nov 05 $803 +$476 +59%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-11-04? Nov 04 $14 −$8 -53%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 04 $88 −$7 -8%
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? Nov 04 $4 $0 -3%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 29 $128 −$3 -2%
Will Palantir Technologies (PLTR) beat quarterly earnings? Oct 28 $70 −$1 -1%
Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July? Jun 23 $94 +$32 +34%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Jun 22 $85 −$85 -100%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July? Jun 22 $109 −$12 -11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 18¢ $58 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 16¢ $55 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $918 64d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $909 64d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $893 64d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $859 64d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $843 64d
BMW Open: Alexander Zverev vs Gabriel Diallo BUY Alexander Zverev 98¢ $827 65d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-15? BUY Yes 63¢ $527 66d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? BUY Yes 70¢ $303 67d
Will Liverpool FC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw? SELL Yes 23¢ $302 67d
Will Liverpool FC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw? SELL Yes 26¢ $8 67d
Will Liverpool FC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 43¢ $457 67d
Will Liverpool FC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw? SELL Yes 31¢ $466 67d
Will Liverpool FC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 38¢ $697 67d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? SELL Yes 27¢ $713 67d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? BUY Yes 37¢ $992 67d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-08? BUY Yes 25¢ $116 73d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-10? BUY Yes 38¢ $200 102d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-03-10? SELL Yes 98¢ $694 102d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-03-10? BUY Yes 65¢ $461 102d
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? SELL Yes 39¢ $167 112d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $13 112d
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? SELL Yes 11¢ $14 112d
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? BUY Yes 62¢ $76 112d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-02-28? SELL Yes 25¢ $76 112d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-02-28? BUY Yes 58¢ $176 112d
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $106 112d
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31? BUY Yes 20¢ $174 160d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 78 history records