Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:16:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3A 0x3aab…c911 other 357 markets active 8h ago coverage 572d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,539 (-36%) realized −$3,536 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate34%118W / 226L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$436now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$263
7 days−$1,367
14 days−$1,410
30 days−$1,410
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% −$1,658
crypto 34% −$860
sports 16% −$790
culture 4% −$215
tech 2% −$124
politics 1% +$3
world 0% +$19
economics 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-29.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 -27.3% -34.2% 41% 23% -58.7%
≤30d 63 -30.7% -37.3% 40% 22% -58.4%
≤90d 66 -32.8% -39.2% 38% 21% -58.4%
all 344 -22.1% -29.5% 34% 29% -44.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.5% 29% -44.3%
10% -36.3% 23% -49.7%
15% -42.4% 20% -54.5%
20% -48.1% 17% -59.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -54% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -38% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$25 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

572d coverage
Net worth$436
Realized−$3,536
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses118 / 226
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions12
Markets (closed)344 / 357
History coverage572d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 344 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $120 $126 +$6 (+5%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $111 $110 −$1 (-1%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Over 54¢ 55¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Yes 47¢ 48¢ $40 $41 +$1 (+3%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $20 $23 +$3 (+15%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+12%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Over 32¢ 32¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-21%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+18%)
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-25%)
Will Neymar Jr.'s national team advance the furthest at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 26¢ 15¢ $8 $4 −$3 (-41%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $10 $3 −$7 (-65%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 17 $11 +$4 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $20 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 17 $9 +$1 +7%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $25 +$26 +101%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $30 +$20 +65%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $50 $0 -0%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $61 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $69 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $30 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $15 −$10 -64%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $202 −$200 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $485 −$480 -99%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $114 −$112 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 15 $16 −$5 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$12 -57%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $21 −$1 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $31 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $12 −$4 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 14 $62 −$25 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 14 $98 −$13 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $31 −$13 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 14 $73 −$2 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 14 $115 −$55 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $318 −$118 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 14 $74 −$11 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 14 $19 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $12 −$8 -67%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 Jun 14 $160 −$158 -99%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 13 $7 −$7 -95%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 45 million views on day 1 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +37%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 12 $7 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 12 $8 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 11 $19 −$18 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 11 $20 +$6 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 11 $17 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 11 $21 −$20 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET SELL Down 54¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $6 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET SELL Up 31¢ $8 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET SELL Up 27¢ $11 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $4 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 8h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 32¢ $20 8h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $41 8h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $51 8h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $30 19h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $50 19h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $25 19h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 100¢ $50 19h
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 19h
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $30 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET SELL Down 52¢ $33 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $31 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $39 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $30 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $30 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $30 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $435.88 · official $436.14 (match) · 1056 history records