Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T18:09:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3A 0x3aaa…0d99 crypto 840 markets active 0h ago coverage 141d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$61 (-2%) realized −$61 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate45%381W / 459L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day7.6pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$50
7 days+$40
14 days+$22
30 days−$60
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$121
other 3% $0
sports 2% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-17.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 325 -6.1% -15.0% 41% 40% -6.1%
≤30d 673 -7.7% -16.5% 43% 42% -11.8%
≤90d 825 -8.8% -17.5% 45% 44% -13.3%
all 840 -8.9% -17.6% 45% 44% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.6% 44% -13.1%
10% -25.4% 40% -21.4%
15% -32.6% 36% -29.0%
20% -39.2% 33% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

141d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$61
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses381 / 459
Open positions0
Markets (closed)840 / 840
History coverage141d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day7.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 840 Trades
no open positions (385 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +13%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$3 -97%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +79%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +28%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +36%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +79%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +86%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +42%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$2 -27%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +79%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +38%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$1 -19%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$1 -13%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 -6%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$2 -29%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$4 +841%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$5 +252%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +0%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +79%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +152%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +101%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 8m
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $2 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $4 14m
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $4 15m
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $3 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $3 49m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $3 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $3 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $4 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 2h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $4 2h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $4 2h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 2h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $4 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $4 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $3 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $4 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $3 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $4 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $3 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1520 history records