Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T16:29:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
3A 0x3aa8…5ad7 world 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 102d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$1,660 (+47%) realized +$669 · open +$991
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +51% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +36% what you keep after slip
Net edge+36%after slip
Net WR75%break-even
Win rate75%3W / 1L
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$439per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$3,444now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$354
7 days+$354
14 days+$354
30 days+$698
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 78% +$1,761
other 19% −$1
politics 3% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +75%
net ROI/market (all)+36.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +67.4% +51.4% 100% 100% +51.4%
≤30d 2 +80.5% +63.3% 100% 100% +61.2%
≤90d 4 +50.9% +36.5% 75% 75% +48.6%
all 4 +50.9% +36.5% 75% 75% +48.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +36.5% 75% +48.6%
10% +23.4% 75% +34.4%
15% +11.5% 75% +21.4%
20% +0.6% 75% +9.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 91% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +64% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +51% · $-wt +64% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$256 vs −$100 · ×2.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×7.71 per $1 lost it wins $7.71
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$3,444
Realized+$669
Unrealized+$991
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses3 / 1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)4 / 8
History coverage102d
Avg bet$439
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 42¢ 66¢ $1,791 $2,783 +$992 (+55%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 23¢ 23¢ $500 $499 −$1 (-0%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 21¢ $107 $107 +$0 (+0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $55 $55 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 28 $525 +$354 +67%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 08 $368 +$345 +94%
Will Jean-Michel Aulas win the 2026 Lyon mayoral election? May 04 $100 −$100 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 03 $50 +$71 +142%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $56 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $110 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 23¢ $512 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 87¢ $375 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 87¢ $504 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 37¢ $474 13d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 52¢ $525 13d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 72¢ $505 20d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 89¢ $616 20d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 32¢ $200 34d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 32¢ $100 34d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 32¢ $300 34d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 55¢ $212 40d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 43¢ $97 51d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 57¢ $97 51d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 59¢ $100 51d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 51¢ $121 55d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 80¢ $121 55d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 22¢ $50 69d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 33¢ $50 69d
Will Jean-Michel Aulas win the 2026 Lyon mayoral election? BUY Yes 16¢ $100 102d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,443.87 · official $3,443.87 (match) · 22 history records