Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:34:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3A 0x3aa6…0b1c world 52 markets active 2h ago coverage 471d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate54%28W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$4
14 days+$4
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% +$4
other 27% $0
politics 8% +$4
finance 7% $0
crypto 7% $0
economics 3% $0
sports 1% −$12
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +1.0% -8.6% 45% 0% -8.5%
≤30d 15 +0.6% -9.0% 40% 0% -9.0%
≤90d 15 +0.6% -9.0% 40% 0% -9.0%
all 52 -1.2% -10.6% 54% 4% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 4% -9.8%
10% -19.1% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.9% 0% -26.3%
20% -34.1% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

471d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses28 / 24
Open positions0
Markets (closed)52 / 52
History coverage471d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 52 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $51 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $60 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 16 $14 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $7 $0 -2%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $95 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $18 $0 +2%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $45 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $25 +$2 +6%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $40 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $47 +$2 +5%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $94 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $94 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 10 $43 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $44 −$1 -1%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran before July? Dec 10 $2 $0 +3%
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair? Dec 10 $4 $0 +2%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 23 $43 −$2 -5%
Will Zhipu AI have a #1 AI model this year? Jun 08 $1 $0 -22%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2700 and $2800 on June 3? Jun 04 $5 $0 +4%
Will Kim Moon-soo win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elect Jun 04 $37 +$5 +14%
Will Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland? Jun 03 $3 $0 +13%
Will Lee Jae-myung win by less than 5%? Jun 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jun 01 $9 $0 -1%
Will Hillary Clinton be named in Epstein files? Jun 01 $1 $0 +0%
Another Houthi strike on Israel in May? May 30 $5 $0 +2%
No Trump announcement of next Fed Chair by June 30? May 29 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2800 on May 23? May 24 $5 $0 +6%
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? May 22 $10 $0 +0%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 21 $4 $0 -1%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president before July? May 20 $8 $0 +1%
Will Finland be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand Final? May 17 $8 $0 +0%
Will Pedro Nuno Santos be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after th May 16 $5 $0 +2%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2025 National League Championship? May 15 $37 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Arthur Laffer as next Fed Chair? May 13 $37 $0 +0%
Will France be the Televote Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand Final? May 13 $41 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final? May 12 $6 $0 -0%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by next Tuesday? May 12 $36 $0 +0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? May 12 $39 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on June 30? May 11 $2 $0 +0%
Will egg prices be less than $4.75 in April? May 11 $41 $0 -0%
Will Lee Jun-seok win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elect May 11 $5 $0 -2%
Will Amazon buy TikTok? May 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1200 in May? May 10 $37 $0 +0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2025 National League Championship? May 10 $37 $0 +0%
US military action on Yemen by Friday? May 09 $37 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $200-250b in federal spending in 2025? May 09 $37 $0 +0%
Will Nikita Kucherov win the Hart Trophy? May 09 $40 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? May 08 $41 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? May 06 $1 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $51 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $51 3h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $46 19h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $47 22h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $6 24h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 24h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $7 24h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $14 28h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 36h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 37h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $12 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $2 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $14 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $6 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $1 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $7 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $39 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $6 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $44 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $7 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $12 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $18 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $51 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $50 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $45 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $45 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $12 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $7 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $6 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $24 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 141 history records