Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:11:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3A 0x3aa6…49a1 weather 88 markets active 1h ago coverage 35d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$505 (-8%) realized −$505 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate66%57W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$70per market
Trades / day6.6pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days−$33
14 days−$409
30 days−$581
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 96% −$872
other 4% +$297
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-18.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -1.6% -11.0% 94% 6% -11.3%
≤30d 83 -10.7% -19.2% 64% 39% -18.2%
≤90d 87 -9.5% -18.1% 66% 40% -18.0%
all 87 -9.5% -18.1% 66% 40% -18.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.1% 40% -18.0%
10% -26.0% 24% -25.9%
15% -33.1% 11% -33.0%
20% -39.7% 6% -39.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 44% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$45 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized−$505
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses57 / 30
Open positions1
Markets (closed)87 / 88
History coverage35d
Avg bet$70
Trades / day6.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 87 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on June 17? Yes 98¢ 98¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 16 $107 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 16 $107 +$8 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 15? Jun 16 $107 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 15? Jun 15 $108 −$107 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $107 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 13? Jun 14 $79 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $104 +$6 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $104 +$5 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 13 $102 +$7 +7%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on Ju Jun 13 $102 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $100 +$7 +7%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 12 $98 +$10 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 31°C on June 11? Jun 12 $98 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 11? Jun 11 $97 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 10? Jun 11 $34 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 11 $186 +$6 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 10? Jun 10 $95 +$5 +5%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 09 $71 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 7? Jun 08 $70 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on June 7? Jun 07 $70 +$6 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 6? Jun 06 $14 +$3 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 5? Jun 05 $41 +$11 +27%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 4? Jun 04 $403 −$400 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 2? Jun 02 $10 +$2 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 2? Jun 02 $46 −$36 -78%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 1? Jun 01 $68 +$21 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 1? May 31 $66 −$9 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on May 31? May 31 $65 −$55 -84%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on June 1? May 31 $67 −$67 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on May 31? May 31 $100 −$89 -89%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 29? May 29 $97 +$21 +22%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $250 +$297 +119%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on May 26? May 26 $70 +$13 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on May 25? May 26 $55 +$10 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C or higher on May 26? May 26 $78 −$42 -54%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on May 26? May 26 $74 −$30 -40%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on May May 26 $162 −$105 -65%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on May 26? May 26 $68 +$22 +33%
Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C on May 25? May 26 $55 +$11 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on May 25? May 25 $55 +$15 +27%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on May 26? May 25 $52 +$14 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on May 25? May 25 $55 +$11 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on May 25? May 25 $67 +$23 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on May 25? May 25 $55 −$54 -99%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on Ma May 24 $131 −$24 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C or below on May 24? May 24 $6 −$6 -89%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on May 24? May 24 $61 −$20 -32%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on May 24? May 24 $58 +$9 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on May 24? May 24 $21 +$14 +69%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on May 23? May 23 $124 −$105 -84%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY Yes 98¢ $36 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY Yes 93¢ $27 46h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY Yes 93¢ $81 46h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju BUY No 98¢ $27 46h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju BUY No 98¢ $80 46h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 15? BUY Yes 63¢ $27 2d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 15? BUY Yes 97¢ $81 2d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 15? BUY Yes 98¢ $27 2d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 15? BUY Yes 98¢ $80 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 14? BUY No 96¢ $27 3d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 14? BUY No 96¢ $80 3d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 13? BUY Yes 97¢ $79 3d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 13? BUY No 94¢ $26 4d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 13? BUY No 94¢ $78 4d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 13? BUY Yes 95¢ $11 4d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 13? BUY Yes 95¢ $93 4d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 12? BUY Yes 92¢ $25 4d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 12? BUY Yes 93¢ $76 4d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on Ju BUY No 96¢ $41 5d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on Ju BUY No 97¢ $49 5d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on Ju BUY No 97¢ $12 5d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 12? BUY No 95¢ $25 5d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 12? BUY No 93¢ $75 5d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju BUY Yes 90¢ $24 5d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju BUY Yes 90¢ $73 5d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 31°C on June 11? BUY Yes 97¢ $24 5d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 31°C on June 11? BUY Yes 97¢ $73 5d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 11? SELL Yes 99¢ $74 6d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 11? SELL Yes 99¢ $25 6d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 11? BUY Yes 97¢ $24 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.12 · official $35.93 (match) · 262 history records