Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:50:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3A 0x3aa1…86b2 world 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 471d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$9 (-2%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate24%5W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$6
14 days−$7
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 90% −$7
sports 4% −$3
tech 2% $0
politics 2% $0
other 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -4.7% -13.8% 0% 0% -13.4%
≤30d 13 -2.9% -12.2% 15% 0% -11.4%
≤90d 13 -2.9% -12.2% 15% 0% -11.4%
all 21 -2.7% -11.9% 24% 0% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 0% -11.9%
10% -20.4% 0% -20.3%
15% -28.1% 0% -28.0%
20% -35.1% 0% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 74% · top 2 92% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

471d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses5 / 16
Open positions0
Markets (closed)21 / 21
History coverage471d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 21 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $33 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $4 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $31 $0 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $2 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $47 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $24 −$6 -23%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $4 $0 -9%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 08 $5 $0 -4%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $25 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 06 $39 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $36 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $32 $0 -1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $36 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 10 $1 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 10 $2 $0 -1%
Will Walmart buy TikTok? Jun 26 $8 $0 +4%
Will 'Lilo & Stitch' gross between $160-170m opening weekend? May 28 $2 $0 +1%
Will Charles Maung Bo be the next pope? May 09 $1 $0 +1%
Will John-Ion Banu-Muscel advance to the Romanian Presidential Electio Apr 19 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the Western Conference? Mar 22 $11 $0 -1%
Kent State vs. Western Michigan Mar 04 $14 −$3 -22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $33 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $33 1h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $4 2d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $4 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $28 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $3 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $31 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes $2 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes $0 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes $0 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $31 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $31 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 23¢ $18 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 30¢ $24 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $10 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $6 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $17 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 10¢ $4 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 11¢ $4 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $4 9d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes $3 10d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes $1 10d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 29¢ $23 10d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 29¢ $2 10d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 10d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 29¢ $17 10d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 10d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $40 10d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $36 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 57 history records