Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:59:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
3A 0x3aa0…3a96 other 109 markets active 2h ago coverage 93d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$66 (-0%) realized −$66 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate8%9W / 97L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$172per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$144now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$9
14 days+$8
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% −$13
politics 20% −$5
economics 6% −$1
sports 5% −$48
tech 3% −$1
culture 3% −$1
crypto 1% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +27.5% +15.3% 33% 33% -6.3%
≤30d 16 +5.1% -4.9% 19% 6% -9.1%
≤90d 106 -4.5% -13.6% 8% 5% -9.9%
all 106 -4.5% -13.6% 8% 5% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 5% -9.9%
10% -21.8% 5% -18.5%
15% -29.4% 5% -26.4%
20% -36.3% 4% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 56% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×4.26 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

93d coverage
Net worth$144
Realized−$66
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses9 / 97
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)106 / 109
History coverage93d
Avg bet$172
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 106 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana dip to $30 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $96 $95 −$0 (-0%)
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-0%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? No 53¢ 52¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $197 $0 -0%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 16 $11 +$9 +83%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $39 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $202 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $24 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 06 $30 $0 -0%
Will M80 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 04 $20 $0 -0%
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 03 $71 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? Jun 02 $43 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? Jun 02 $65 $0 +0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $39 $0 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $21 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $230 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 24 $187 $0 -0%
Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 23 $27 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 22 $543 −$1 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $161 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 17 $170 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $330 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 16 $177 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $387 $0 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 14 $161 $0 -0%
Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 13 $176 $0 -0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 10 $162 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $166 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $173 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $178 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $324 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 07 $359 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 06 $332 $0 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 05 $178 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $174 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $346 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 03 $181 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 02 $338 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 29 $167 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 28 $353 −$1 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 27 $504 −$1 -0%
Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) gain the most seats in the next Apr 20 $164 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 20 $163 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $175 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 19 $168 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 18 $168 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $183 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $181 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Hassett be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 15 $184 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 15 $361 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 15 $181 $0 -0%
Will Christopher Waller be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 14 $183 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $179 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $36 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 53¢ $13 9h
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $39 21h
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $39 25h
Will Solana dip to $30 in June? BUY No 100¢ $96 2d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 54¢ $11 3d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $39 6d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $39 7d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $20 7d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $20 7d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $23 9d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $24 9d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $30 12d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $30 12d
Will M80 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 100¢ $20 14d
Will M80 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 100¢ $20 14d
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $36 15d
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $36 15d
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $35 15d
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $35 15d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $39 18d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $39 18d
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $21 18d
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $21 18d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $38 19d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $38 19d
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? BUY No 99¢ $43 23d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL No 100¢ $22 25d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY No 100¢ $22 25d
Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $27 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $144.35 · official $144.35 (match) · 290 history records