Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:12:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3A 0x3a9f…ab98 other 15 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$56 (-15%) realized −$56 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day7.9pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$97
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-35.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -28.5% -35.3% 0% 0% -32.9%
≤30d 15 -28.5% -35.3% 0% 0% -32.9%
≤90d 15 -28.5% -35.3% 0% 0% -32.9%
all 15 -28.5% -35.3% 0% 0% -32.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.3% 0% -32.9%
10% -41.5% 0% -39.3%
15% -47.1% 0% -45.1%
20% -52.3% 0% -50.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late -31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$6 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$56
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 15
Open positions0
Markets (closed)15 / 15
History coverage4d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day7.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 15 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $10 −$5 -53%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $10 −$3 -29%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $10 −$3 -25%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $15 −$7 -44%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $31 −$11 -37%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $10 $0 -1%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $21 −$8 -37%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $21 −$5 -25%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $38 −$12 -32%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $15 −$6 -37%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $31 −$15 -48%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $26 −$5 -19%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $46 −$4 -10%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $41 −$10 -25%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $51 −$3 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $5 1h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $7 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $8 1h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $9 1h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $19 1h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $10 1h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $13 1h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $16 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $26 1h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $10 1h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $16 1h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $21 1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $42 1h
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $31 1h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $49 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $38 3d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 3d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $46 3d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 3d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 3d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $51 3d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $31 3d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $31 3d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $26 3d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $21 3d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $15 3d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $15 3d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $21 3d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 3d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $41 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 34 history records