Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:10:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
3A 0x3a9b…636c other 24 markets active 1h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$137 (+36%) realized +$149 · open −$12
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%8W / 10L
Drawdown37%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit46%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$76
7 days+$80
14 days+$131
30 days+$131
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% +$77
sports 47% +$42
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+3.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +4.9% -5.1% 38% 38% +16.3%
≤30d 18 +14.4% +3.5% 44% 44% +26.1%
≤90d 18 +14.4% +3.5% 44% 44% +26.1%
all 18 +14.4% +3.5% 44% 44% +26.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.5% 44% +26.1%
10% -6.4% 44% +14.0%
15% -15.5% 44% +3.0%
20% -23.8% 39% -7.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 47% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +39% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +39% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +47% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$14 · ×2.4 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.92 per $1 lost it wins $1.92
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized+$149
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses8 / 10
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions6
Markets (closed)18 / 24
History coverage12d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown37%
Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Yes 47¢ 42¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-12%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Over 56¢ 64¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+14%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $2 −$0 (-7%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score in First Half Yes 17¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $15 +$16 +104%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Sean O'Malley win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $15 +$23 +151%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-1 be the exact series outcome? Jun 15 $31 +$56 +184%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$45 +440%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 13 $46 +$72 +157%
Jalen Brunson: Assists O/U 6.5 Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $20 +$9 +43%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $37 +$40 +108%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 26.5 Jun 06 $15 +$11 +72%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 17¢ $10 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $20 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 56¢ $10 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 34¢ $15 12h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 12h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $11 26h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 48¢ $15 26h
Will Sean O'Malley win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 39¢ $15 47h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 21¢ $15 47h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY Yes 31¢ $8 2d
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Curaçao 15¢ $5 2d
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-1 be the exact series outcome? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 29¢ $10 3d
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-1 be the exact series outcome? BUY Yes 37¢ $20 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $31 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 23¢ $21 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $46 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $20 5d
Jalen Brunson: Assists O/U 6.5 BUY Yes 42¢ $15 8d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 47¢ $37 8d
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 26.5 BUY Yes 57¢ $15 11d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 12d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 12d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.39 · official $32.39 (match) · 44 history records