Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:49:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3A 0x3a9b…18ea other 32 markets active 1h ago coverage 447d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$5 (-1%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate28%9W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 50% −$3
other 34% +$4
politics 10% −$6
economics 2% $0
sports 2% $0
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 11 -2.3% -11.6% 9% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 11 -2.3% -11.6% 9% 0% -10.1%
all 32 -0.8% -10.2% 28% 6% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 6% -10.2%
10% -18.8% 6% -18.8%
15% -26.7% 6% -26.6%
20% -33.9% 6% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 78% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

447d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses9 / 23
Open positions0
Markets (closed)32 / 32
History coverage447d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 32 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $47 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 04 $47 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 03 $4 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $68 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 02 $5 −$1 -12%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 01 $53 −$2 -3%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 01 $52 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 31 $2 $0 -9%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 31 $86 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 30 $41 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 27 $50 $0 +0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 World Series? Dec 14 $2 $0 +1%
Will Kylian Mbappe win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 28 $11 $0 +2%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 National League Championship? May 24 $1 $0 -0%
Will 'LEveL' win Crunchyroll's Best Anime Song Award for 2025? May 21 $12 $0 +0%
Will Luís Montenegro be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the May 21 $11 +$1 +10%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? May 15 $7 +$4 +51%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 05 $2 $0 -18%
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? May 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in Ontario in the next Canad Apr 26 $7 +$4 +54%
Will another coalition form the next German Government? Apr 25 $14 $0 +0%
Will the PPC win 1 seat in the next Canadian Election? Apr 25 $13 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 24 $13 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Apr 23 $14 $0 +0%
Will Trump impose tariffs on Colombia in the first 100 days? Apr 22 $14 −$1 -4%
Will CDU/CSU and SPD form the next German Government? Apr 22 $14 $0 +0%
Will Jerome Powell be out as Federal Reserve Chair in Trump's first 10 Apr 21 $14 $0 -0%
Will Cristian-Vasile Terheș advance to the Romanian Presidential Elect Apr 21 $14 $0 +0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? Apr 20 $14 $0 +0%
Will Mark Carney lose his seat? Apr 18 $15 $0 +2%
Arsenal wins the Premier League? Apr 15 $14 $0 +3%
Will Google have the top AI model on March 31? Mar 28 $14 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $47 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $47 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 54¢ $2 13d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $45 13d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $47 13d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $4 14d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 14d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 14d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $19 15d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $17 15d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $37 15d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $4 15d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 15d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 100¢ $3 16d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $45 16d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $10 16d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $35 16d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 17d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 17d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 17d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 17d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $41 17d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $38 17d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $3 17d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 50¢ $45 17d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 50¢ $45 18d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 18d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes 5¢ $4 18d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $4 18d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $37 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 103 history records