Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:50:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3A 0x3a9a…def2 crypto 175 markets active 4d ago coverage 5d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (66 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$81 (-8%) realized −$81 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate79%139W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day65.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$91
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (66 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 133 -3.5% -12.7% 80% 60% -17.3%
≤30d 175 -5.0% -14.0% 79% 61% -17.7%
≤90d 175 -5.0% -14.0% 79% 61% -17.7%
all 175 -5.0% -14.0% 79% 61% -17.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover65.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.0% 61% -17.7%
10% ← realistic here -22.3% 23% -25.5%
15% -29.8% 6% -32.7%
20% -36.7% 1% -39.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$7 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$81
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses139 / 36
Open positions0
Markets (closed)175 / 175
History coverage5d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day65.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 175 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 13 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 12 $11 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$4 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $129 −$129 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 12 $35 +$6 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 12 $11 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$3 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 12 $15 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$6 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 12 $9 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 12 $96 +$16 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 12 $9 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 12 $40 +$7 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 12 $15 +$6 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 12 $30 +$10 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 12 $20 +$6 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 11 $20 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 11 $35 +$6 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 11 $58 +$14 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 11 $15 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$1 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $11 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $12 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $12 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $12 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $12 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $12 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $12 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $12 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $12 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $12 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $12 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $11 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $12 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $12 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $12 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $11 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 487 history records