Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T04:07:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3A 0x3a99…3b5f other 12 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$45 (-12%) realized −$44 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%5W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day6.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 87% −$35
sports 13% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-32.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -25.1% -32.2% 45% 45% -17.8%
≤30d 11 -25.1% -32.2% 45% 45% -17.8%
≤90d 11 -25.1% -32.2% 45% 45% -17.8%
all 11 -25.1% -32.2% 45% 45% -17.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.2% 45% -17.8%
10% -38.7% 27% -25.7%
15% -44.6% 18% -32.8%
20% -50.1% 0% -39.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 60% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$16 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$44
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses5 / 6
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)11 / 12
History coverage4d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day6.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Yes 39¢ 32¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 27 $29 +$14 +48%
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 26 $3 −$3 -95%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 26 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $34 +$7 +20%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $37 −$37 -99%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $90 −$47 -52%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $10 −$7 -76%
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw? Jun 25 $2 $0 -16%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $29 +$9 +32%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $76 +$9 +12%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $49 +$24 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $44 2h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 72¢ $15 2h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 62¢ $15 2h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 39¢ $5 7h
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 7h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 8h
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 8h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? SELL No 98¢ $41 8h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 81¢ $34 13h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 76¢ $37 29h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 100¢ $35 30h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 90¢ $31 30h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 30h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 12¢ $8 30h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 30h
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw? SELL Yes 8¢ $2 42h
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 42h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 83¢ $59 42h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 75¢ $29 2d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? SELL No 100¢ $86 2d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 89¢ $76 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $49 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.01 · official $4.01 (match) · 24 history records