Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:37:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3A 0x3a96…abb4 crypto 235 markets active 5d ago coverage 23d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$166 (-2%) realized −$164 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate53%122W / 110L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day13.0pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$435
14 days−$253
30 days−$372
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 86% −$289
sports 13% −$51
politics 0% −$15
tech 0% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -10.3% -18.9% 58% 45% -20.8%
≤30d 232 -1.9% -11.3% 53% 45% -13.3%
≤90d 232 -1.9% -11.3% 53% 45% -13.3%
all 232 -1.9% -11.3% 53% 45% -13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 45% -13.3%
10% -19.8% 38% -21.6%
15% -27.5% 29% -29.1%
20% -34.6% 27% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$29 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized−$164
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses122 / 110
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions3
Markets (closed)232 / 235
History coverage23d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day13.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 232 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Boston Red Sox 50¢ 47¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-6%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox Tampa Bay Rays 57¢ 55¢ $16 $15 −$1 (-3%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 43 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 13 $11 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 13 $23 −$21 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 13 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 13 $23 +$5 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 13 $23 +$5 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 13 $16 +$16 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 13 $23 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 13 $23 −$23 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 12 $180 −$180 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 12 $183 −$183 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 12 $182 −$81 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 12 $181 +$144 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 12 $183 −$92 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 12 $180 −$154 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 12 $180 −$7 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 12 $135 +$23 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 12 $134 +$11 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 12 $136 +$16 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 12 $137 −$137 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 12 $139 +$235 +168%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 12 $138 −$133 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 12 $137 +$63 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 12 $136 +$42 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 12 $138 −$133 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 12 $136 +$60 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 12 $138 +$105 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 12 $136 +$40 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 11 $141 −$141 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 11 $17 +$3 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 11 $138 +$105 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 11 $134 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 10 $111 +$92 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 10 $112 −$112 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 10 $112 +$164 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 10 $110 +$38 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 10 $110 −$5 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 10 $112 −$112 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 10 $109 +$32 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 10 $108 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 10 $109 −$109 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 10 $216 −$41 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 10 $109 −$109 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 10 $110 −$107 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 10 $109 +$27 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 10 $111 +$104 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 10 $119 +$70 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 10 $109 +$29 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 10 $109 +$25 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 10 $108 +$10 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 10 $108 −$42 -39%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $11 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $11 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET SELL Up 8¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $23 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $23 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $23 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET SELL Up 90¢ $28 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $23 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $16 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $23 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $23 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $180 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Up 39¢ $100 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $182 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $183 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $181 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET SELL Down 20¢ $91 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $183 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET SELL Up 10¢ $26 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $180 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Up 61¢ $173 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $180 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $158 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $135 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $134 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET SELL Up 86¢ $152 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $136 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $137 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $139 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $138 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.56 · official $43.56 (match) · 478 history records