Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:10:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
3A 0x3a95…343b sports 470 markets active 2h ago coverage 114d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 114d only
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$36,019 (+18%) realized +$34,946 · open +$1,073
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate43%201W / 264L
Whale WR68%big bets
Drawdown57%max
Avg bet$414per market
Trades / day25.0pace
Fees−$3,028est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$2,163now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3,307
7 days+$6,835
14 days+$3,062
30 days−$8,324
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% +$32,055
other 1% −$1,039
culture 0% −$525
economics 0% −$369
tech 0% −$458
crypto 0% −$322
politics 0% −$299
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 +62.9% +47.3% 35% 35% +34.8%
≤30d 129 +19.0% +7.7% 36% 33% -28.6%
≤90d 428 +14.0% +3.1% 38% 35% -5.2%
all 465 +20.0% +8.5% 43% 40% +2.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +8.5% 40% +2.4%
10% ← realistic here -1.8% 36% -7.4%
15% -11.3% 32% -16.4%
20% -20.0% 31% -24.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 68% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +17% → late +23% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
5.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$524 vs −$293 · ×1.79 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.36 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$2,163
Realized+$34,946
Unrealized+$1,073
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses201 / 264
Whale WR (big bets)68%
Est. fees paid−$3,028
Open positions5
Markets (closed)465 / 470
History coverage114d ⚠
Avg bet$414
Trades / day25.0
Drawdown57%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 465 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team - Game 2 Winner Flame Team 23¢ 100¢ $364 $1,604 +$1,240 (+341%)
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Noir Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Group B Noir Esports 20¢ 50¢ $126 $311 +$185 (+148%)
Will US unemployment reach at least 6.0% in 2026? Yes 22¢ 6¢ $505 $136 −$369 (-73%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $70 $65 −$5 (-7%)
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Noir Esports - Game 1 Winner Noir Esports 27¢ 50¢ $26 $48 +$22 (+87%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Ivory - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $551 +$363 +66%
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Ivory - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $460 +$540 +117%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 17 $149 −$149 -100%
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Ivory (BO3) - EPL World Series Sout Jun 17 $34 −$34 -100%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Lindorfitos - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $200 −$200 -100%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 16 $197 +$598 +303%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience (BO3) - The International Chin Jun 16 $150 −$150 -100%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $330 −$330 -100%
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $250 −$250 -100%
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $310 −$310 -100%
Dota 2: Hokori vs Team Nemesis - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $269 −$263 -98%
Dota 2: cincai team vs Pandawa Lima (BO3) - The International Southeas Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Dota 2: Inner Circle vs MODUS (BO1) - The International Europe Open Qu Jun 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Dota 2: summer bear vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Open Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $230 −$230 -100%
Game Handicap: Lindorfitos (-1.5) vs x5 Gaming (+1.5) Jun 15 $241 −$241 -100%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Grey Trac - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $200 −$200 -100%
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $329 −$329 -100%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Rune Eaters (BO1) - The International Europe Open Jun 15 $124 −$124 -100%
Dota 2: Level UP vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Europe Jun 15 $617 −$617 -100%
Dota 2: MODUS vs 1p2m (BO3) - The International Europe Open Qualifier Jun 15 $188 −$188 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $346 −$346 -100%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International Chin Jun 15 $359 −$359 -100%
Armenia vs. Moldova: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $200 −$200 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $216 −$216 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Jun 15 $200 −$200 -100%
Dota 2: Nande+4 vs Noir Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Group B Jun 15 $108 +$56 +52%
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $322 +$282 +87%
Game Handicap: Nem (-1.5) vs Hokori (+1.5) Jun 15 $168 −$167 -100%
Dota 2: Hokori vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - The International South America Jun 15 $330 −$330 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $208 −$202 -97%
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - EPL World Series Southea Jun 15 $250 +$750 +300%
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $175 +$178 +102%
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Noir Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $60 +$2,948 +4900%
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Noir Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $984 +$1,156 +117%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $300 +$1,700 +567%
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Noir Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Gro Jun 14 $111 +$31 +28%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $288 +$1,173 +408%
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Gr Jun 13 $212 +$1,745 +824%
Dota 2: Level UP vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $694 +$995 +143%
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster - Game 1 Winner Jun 09 $52 −$52 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 09 $400 −$400 -100%
Other Jun 09 $66 −$66 -100%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back (BO3) - Esports World Cup Southeast Asia Jun 09 $357 −$357 -100%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs BALU (BO3) - European Pro League Group A Jun 09 $202 −$202 -100%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs G-Time (BO3) - European Pro League Group A Jun 09 $477 −$477 -100%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 09 $273 −$273 -100%
Dota 2: Two Move vs MODUS (BO3) - Esports World Cup Eastern Europe Clo Jun 09 $586 −$586 -100%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs summer bear (BO3) - European Pro League Group Jun 09 $453 −$453 -100%
Will LGD Gaming win BLAST Slam VII? Jun 09 $271 −$271 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team - Game 2 Winner BUY Flame Team 23¢ $363 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team - Game 2 Winner BUY Flame Team 15¢ $2 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team - Game 2 Winner BUY Flame Team 15¢ $0 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team - Game 2 Winner BUY Flame Team 15¢ $0 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team - Game 2 Winner BUY Flame Team 15¢ $1 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team - Game 2 Winner BUY Flame Team 15¢ $1 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team - Game 2 Winner BUY Flame Team 15¢ $1 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team - Game 2 Winner BUY Flame Team 15¢ $0 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team - Game 2 Winner BUY Flame Team 15¢ $2 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team - Game 2 Winner BUY Flame Team 15¢ $0 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team - Game 2 Winner BUY Flame Team 15¢ $0 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team - Game 2 Winner BUY Flame Team 15¢ $2 1h
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Ivory - Game 2 Winner BUY Ivory 80¢ $43 7h
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Ivory - Game 2 Winner BUY Ivory 53¢ $40 7h
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Ivory - Game 2 Winner BUY Ivory 54¢ $203 7h
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Ivory - Game 2 Winner BUY Ivory 54¢ $133 7h
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Ivory - Game 2 Winner BUY InterActive Philippines 50¢ $51 7h
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Ivory - Game 2 Winner BUY Ivory 50¢ $81 7h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Cloud Rising 5¢ $149 8h
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Ivory - Game 1 Winner BUY Ivory 46¢ $51 8h
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Ivory - Game 1 Winner BUY Ivory 46¢ $85 8h
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Ivory - Game 1 Winner BUY Ivory 46¢ $85 8h
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Ivory - Game 1 Winner BUY Ivory 46¢ $80 8h
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Ivory - Game 1 Winner BUY Ivory 46¢ $82 8h
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Ivory - Game 1 Winner BUY Ivory 46¢ $76 8h
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Ivory (BO3) - EPL World Series Sout BUY InterActive Philippines 30¢ $34 8h
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Ivory (BO3) - EPL World Series Sout BUY InterActive Philippines 30¢ $0 8h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Lindorfitos - Game 1 Winner BUY Lindorfitos 10¢ $84 19h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Lindorfitos - Game 1 Winner BUY Lindorfitos 10¢ $10 19h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Lindorfitos - Game 1 Winner BUY Lindorfitos 10¢ $100 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,163.42 · official $2,163.42 (match) · 3500 history records