Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:09:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
3A 0x3a94…1394 crypto 471 markets active 1h ago coverage 90d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$356 (+8%) realized +$356 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate62%292W / 179L
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day8.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$41
7 days+$107
14 days+$56
30 days+$169
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$342
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)-3.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +24.0% +12.2% 91% 91% +12.0%
≤30d 57 +5.8% -4.3% 77% 77% -1.1%
≤90d 471 +7.2% -3.0% 62% 61% -2.6%
all 471 +7.2% -3.0% 62% 61% -2.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.0% 61% -2.6%
10% -12.3% 50% -11.9%
15% -20.8% 28% -20.4%
20% -28.5% 9% -28.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.4 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$356
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses292 / 179
Open positions0
Markets (closed)471 / 471
History coverage90d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day8.4
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 471 Trades
no open positions (33 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 21 $40 +$15 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 21 $42 +$13 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 21 $41 +$13 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 18 $42 +$13 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 17 $42 −$41 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $43 +$12 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $42 +$13 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $43 +$12 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 14 $41 +$19 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 14 $38 +$22 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $39 +$16 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 12 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 12 $42 +$13 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 11 $41 −$41 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 11 $43 +$12 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 10 $30 +$30 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 10 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 10 $42 +$13 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 09 $42 +$13 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 09 $42 +$13 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 09 $41 +$19 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 09 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 05 $81 +$39 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 05 $41 +$19 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 04 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 04 $24 +$8 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 03 $38 +$5 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 03 $38 +$12 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 02 $34 +$16 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 01 $76 +$24 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET May 31 $18 −$18 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET May 31 $18 −$18 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET May 31 $34 +$16 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET May 31 $19 +$6 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET May 31 $19 +$6 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET May 31 $32 +$18 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET May 31 $19 +$6 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET May 31 $31 +$19 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET May 30 $13 +$4 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET May 30 $19 +$6 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET May 29 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET May 29 $19 +$6 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET May 29 $19 +$6 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET May 29 $19 +$6 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET May 28 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET May 28 $34 +$16 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET May 28 $19 +$6 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET May 28 $19 +$6 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET May 27 $19 +$6 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET May 26 $19 −$19 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $40 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $8 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $8 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $15 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $42 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $43 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $42 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $43 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $12 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $23 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $38 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $39 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $19 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $22 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $19 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $17 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $41 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $43 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $30 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $42 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1217 history records