Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T15:26:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
3A 0x3a93…5574 politics 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 155d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$8 (+1%) realized −$7 · open +$15
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%3W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$151per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$103now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$27
7 days+$27
14 days+$27
30 days+$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 29% −$55
politics 29% −$112
other 19% +$115
tech 18% +$27
world 5% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +12.1% +1.4% 100% 100% +1.4%
≤30d 1 +12.1% +1.4% 100% 100% +1.4%
≤90d 4 -0.9% -10.3% 50% 50% -7.4%
all 6 -7.9% -16.7% 50% 50% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.7% 50% -12.1%
10% -24.6% 33% -20.5%
15% -31.9% 33% -28.2%
20% -38.6% 33% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 88% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$73 vs −$83 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

155d coverage
Net worth$103
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$15
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses3 / 3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)6 / 8
History coverage155d
Avg bet$151
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran successfully targets shipping by July 31? Yes 63¢ 72¢ $66 $76 +$10 (+15%)
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fable 5 by June 30? No 71¢ 89¢ $21 $26 +$5 (+25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? Jun 26 $221 +$27 +12%
Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026? May 27 $110 +$110 +100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Keir Starmer by May 31, 2026? Apr 29 $67 −$65 -97%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Apr 09 $351 −$55 -16%
Will Bill or Hillary Clinton be held in contempt of Congress by Feb 28 Mar 05 $149 +$83 +56%
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 31? Jan 22 $130 −$130 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $102.61 · official $102.61 (match) · 18 history records