Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T19:57:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
3A 0x3a91…736b sports 634 markets active 2h ago coverage 740d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$294 (+3%) realized +$338 · open −$44
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate60%375W / 246L
Drawdown56%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$63est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$317now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$28
7 days−$74
14 days−$218
30 days+$233
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% +$540
other 12% −$77
crypto 8% −$183
politics 4% −$27
economics 4% −$1
world 1% −$3
culture 0% −$8
weather 0% $0
tech 0% +$1
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -12.3% -20.7% 61% 61% -19.2%
≤30d 118 +3.1% -6.7% 69% 66% -5.1%
≤90d 377 +0.1% -9.5% 63% 62% -4.3%
all 621 -2.1% -11.5% 60% 56% -7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 56% -7.2%
10% -19.9% 51% -16.1%
15% -27.7% 42% -24.2%
20% -34.8% 27% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$11 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

740d coverage
Net worth$317
Realized+$338
Unrealized−$44
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses375 / 246
Est. fees paid−$63
Open positions13
Markets (closed)621 / 634
History coverage740d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 621 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Dan Cox win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary election? Yes 85¢ 88¢ $60 $62 +$2 (+4%)
Will Ben McAdams be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? Yes 89¢ 90¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs AM Gaming (BO3) - DraculaN Group A Inner Circle Esports 72¢ 72¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier Playoffs REKONIX 73¢ 66¢ $50 $46 −$4 (-9%)
Will AJ Dybantsa be the 2nd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? No 82¢ 90¢ $30 $33 +$3 (+9%)
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 57¢ 24¢ $60 $25 −$35 (-59%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 70¢ 66¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-6%)
Will SpaceX have 14+ launches in June 2026? Yes 75¢ 85¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+13%)
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? Yes 49¢ 67¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+37%)
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Yes 68¢ 44¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-35%)
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 26? No 66¢ 24¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-63%)
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 30? No 43¢ 24¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-43%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 185 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Jun 22 $51 +$26 +52%
Dota 2: Execration vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The International Sout Jun 22 $50 +$15 +31%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Europe Clos Jun 21 $51 −$50 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner Jun 21 $20 −$20 -98%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Jun 20 $50 +$22 +44%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $10 +$9 +86%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $20 +$14 +67%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $60 +$20 +33%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $111 −$110 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 18 $50 +$21 +42%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South Ameri Jun 18 $40 +$9 +23%
Will Warsh say "Job" 15+ times during June Press Conference? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Game Handicap: TR (-1.5) vs Yakult Brothers (+1.5) Jun 17 $50 −$50 -99%
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Americ Jun 17 $50 +$11 +21%
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European Jun 16 $30 +$10 +34%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $30 +$14 +46%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $20 +$19 +93%
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 15 $40 +$16 +40%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Game Handicap: VG (-1.5) vs Grey Trac (+1.5) Jun 15 $30 +$11 +36%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Pro League Series Jun 15 $60 −$24 -40%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 14 $50 +$7 +14%
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $50 +$22 +43%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) Jun 14 $10 −$3 -31%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $30 +$15 +50%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $40 +$24 +60%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $51 +$39 +76%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $30 +$13 +44%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $50 +$21 +42%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $20 +$9 +46%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $51 +$25 +50%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $20 −$20 -99%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $30 +$13 +42%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $40 +$23 +57%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $20 −$20 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $50 +$16 +32%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $60 +$13 +21%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $20 +$15 +76%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $60 +$9 +16%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $20 −$12 -60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs AM Gaming (BO3) - DraculaN Gro BUY Inner Circle Esports 72¢ $50 1h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia BUY REKONIX 73¢ $50 1h
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Europe Clos BUY MOUZ 65¢ $51 24h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed BUY OG 65¢ $51 24h
Dota 2: Execration vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The International Sout BUY Execration 76¢ $50 24h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY FURIA 48¢ $20 27h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 69¢ $61 3d
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $20 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 3d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 53¢ $5 3d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 53¢ $5 3d
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia BUY REKONIX 69¢ $50 3d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 3d
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 26? BUY No 66¢ $10 3d
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 30? BUY No 43¢ $5 3d
Will Ben McAdams be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? BUY Yes 89¢ $50 3d
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? BUY Yes 49¢ $5 3d
Will AJ Dybantsa be the 2nd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? BUY No 82¢ $30 3d
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 57¢ $61 3d
Will Dan Cox win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary electio BUY Yes 85¢ $60 3d
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Vici Gaming 70¢ $50 4d
Will SpaceX have 14+ launches in June 2026? BUY Yes 75¢ $10 5d
Will Warsh say "Job" 15+ times during June Press Conference? BUY Yes 80¢ $5 5d
Game Handicap: TR (-1.5) vs Yakult Brothers (+1.5) BUY Yakult Brothers 67¢ $50 5d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 71¢ $50 5d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 74¢ $60 5d
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South Ameri BUY PlayTime 81¢ $40 5d
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Americ BUY PlayTime 82¢ $50 6d
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Resilience 68¢ $30 6d
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European BUY KOLESIE 74¢ $30 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $317.29 · official $317.29 (match) · 1177 history records